**Traders assign an 88% probability that Vladimir Putin will not visit the United States by December 31, 2026, reflecting persistent barriers in US-Russia diplomacy amid the Ukraine conflict.** The Trump administration extended an invitation for Putin to attend the G20 summit in Miami in December, which could enable a meeting with President Trump, yet Kremlin officials have described the decision as premature and have not committed to acceptance. Putin last traveled to the US mainland before the 2022 invasion and met Trump in Alaska in 2025 without producing a breakthrough on peace talks. Russia continues to prioritize military objectives and specific settlement terms, while security considerations, sanctions, and the International Criminal Court warrant further limit high-profile travel. Recent bilateral contacts and parallel diplomacy around the APEC summit in China have not shifted expectations that Putin will attend the Florida event or make another US trip before year-end.