Russia has intensified its long-range strike campaign against Kyiv and surrounding energy infrastructure in recent weeks, with combined drone and ballistic missile barrages on September 30–October 1 marking the heaviest assault on power facilities in months. These attacks caused civilian casualties, triggered emergency power cuts in the capital for the first time since spring, and damaged thermal plants, substations, and other grid assets ahead of winter. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted many incoming threats but faced strain from repeated waves of jet-powered drones and missiles. The pattern reflects Moscow’s focus on degrading Ukrainian resilience through sustained pressure on the capital and critical systems, with traders assessing probabilities around the frequency and scale of future targeting amid ongoing hostilities and diplomatic signals.