**Pete Hegseth remains firmly in office as Secretary of War, actively directing Pentagon policy and personnel changes with no confirmed steps toward his removal before late November.** He recently delivered a high-profile “State of the Force” address announcing a 20% reduction in general and flag officer positions, a new autonomous warfare command, and an Office of Religious Affairs while continuing to oversee operations amid the ongoing Iran conflict. President Trump has publicly backed Hegseth’s approach, and the defense secretary has issued recent directives such as a military-wide stand-down to facilitate voting in the midterms. Although some Republican lawmakers have expressed frustration over leadership style, firings of senior officers, and stalled priorities, and Democrats have floated post-election accountability measures, these have not produced any binding actions or timelines that would force an exit by November 30. Trader consensus reflected in the 91.5% “No” probability aligns with Hegseth’s demonstrated institutional control and the absence of imminent triggers for departure in the current window.