France’s political system centers on a fixed presidential term ending in May 2027, with Emmanuel Macron constitutionally barred from a third consecutive mandate. Recent months have featured repeated government instability, including multiple prime ministerial changes, minority coalitions, and failed no-confidence attempts tied to contentious 2027 budget negotiations and fiscal tightening. These pressures have kept approval ratings low but have not produced viable pathways for Macron’s early exit, such as resignation or parliamentary removal. Traders price the probability of departure before year-end at low single digits, reflecting the absence of imminent triggers and the scheduled transition to the next presidential contest. Upcoming budget votes and any renewed coalition strains remain the primary variables that could test this stability.