**Trader consensus on the Bank of Japan’s October 30, 2026, policy decision heavily favors no change at the current 1.25% policy rate, reflecting the fresh 25-basis-point hike delivered on September 18 and forward guidance emphasizing a data-dependent approach.** Core CPI (excluding fresh food and fuel) held near 1.9% year-over-year in August, approaching but remaining below the 2% target, while energy-price risks tied to Middle East developments continue to support vigilance against upside inflation surprises. Governor Ueda’s post-meeting remarks highlighted a shift toward preemptive stabilization of underlying inflation without committing to consecutive or larger moves, and economist surveys showed near-universal expectations for the next adjustment no earlier than December or January. With the policy rate now at its highest level since 1995 and financial conditions still accommodative, market-implied odds embed the view that incoming wage, price, and global data will need to show further acceleration before another adjustment is warranted.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 84%
25 bps increase 16%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$129,504 Vol.
$129,504 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
84%
25 bps increase
16%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 84%
25 bps increase 16%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$129,504 Vol.
$129,504 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$7,041 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$12,159 Vol.
<1%
No change
$43,946 Vol.
84%
25 bps increase
$45,851 Vol.
16%
50+ bps increase
$20,508 Vol.
1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Trader consensus on the Bank of Japan’s October 30, 2026, policy decision heavily favors no change at the current 1.25% policy rate, reflecting the fresh 25-basis-point hike delivered on September 18 and forward guidance emphasizing a data-dependent approach.**
Core CPI (excluding fresh food and fuel) held near 1.9% year-over-year in August, approaching but remaining below the 2% target, while energy-price risks tied to Middle East developments continue to support vigilance against upside inflation surprises. Governor Ueda’s post-meeting remarks highlighted a shift toward preemptive stabilization of underlying inflation without committing to consecutive or larger moves, and economist surveys showed near-universal expectations for the next adjustment no earlier than December or January. With the policy rate now at its highest level since 1995 and financial conditions still accommodative, market-implied odds embed the view that incoming wage, price, and global data will need to show further acceleration before another adjustment is warranted.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$129,504End Date
Oct 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Trader consensus on the Bank of Japan’s October 30, 2026, policy decision heavily favors no change at the current 1.25% policy rate, reflecting the fresh 25-basis-point hike delivered on September 18 and forward guidance emphasizing a data-dependent approach.**
Core CPI (excluding fresh food and fuel) held near 1.9% year-over-year in August, approaching but remaining below the 2% target, while energy-price risks tied to Middle East developments continue to support vigilance against upside inflation surprises. Governor Ueda’s post-meeting remarks highlighted a shift toward preemptive stabilization of underlying inflation without committing to consecutive or larger moves, and economist surveys showed near-universal expectations for the next adjustment no earlier than December or January. With the policy rate now at its highest level since 1995 and financial conditions still accommodative, market-implied odds embed the view that incoming wage, price, and global data will need to show further acceleration before another adjustment is warranted.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$129,504End Date
Oct 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on the Bank of Japan’s October 30, 2026, policy decision heavily favors no change at the current 1.25% policy rate, reflecting the fresh 25-basis-point hike delivered on September 18 and forward guidance emphasizing a data-dependent approach.** Core CPI (excluding fresh food and fuel) held near 1.9% year-over-year in August, approaching but remaining below the 2% target, while energy-price risks tied to Middle East developments continue to support vigilance against upside inflation surprises. Governor Ueda’s post-meeting remarks highlighted a shift toward preemptive stabilization of underlying inflation without committing to consecutive or larger moves, and economist surveys showed near-universal expectations for the next adjustment no earlier than December or January. With the policy rate now at its highest level since 1995 and financial conditions still accommodative, market-implied odds embed the view that incoming wage, price, and global data will need to show further acceleration before another adjustment is warranted.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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