Strong tracking estimates for Q3 2026 real GDP, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model recently projecting annualized growth near or above 4% and private forecasts from firms like Wells Fargo and TD Economics centering around 2.8–3.0%, underpin the 69.5% market-implied odds on ≥3.0% growth. AI-driven capital expenditures, broadening business investment, and resilient consumer spending amid a stable labor market—unemployment at 4.1% and August payrolls up 162,000—have supported upward revisions. The Federal Reserve’s September 2026 rate hike to the 3.75–4.00% range and updated projections for 2.3% full-year growth reflect ongoing inflation concerns but have not yet dented near-term momentum. The advance Q3 GDP release in late October will provide the key resolution catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated≥3.0% 70%
2.5–3.0% 11%
2.0–2.5% 6%
1.5–2.0% 4.7%
$35,075 Vol.
$35,075 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
3%
0.5–1.0%
2%
1.0–1.5%
2%
1.5–2.0%
5%
2.0–2.5%
6%
2.5–3.0%
11%
≥3.0%
70%
≥3.0% 70%
2.5–3.0% 11%
2.0–2.5% 6%
1.5–2.0% 4.7%
$35,075 Vol.
$35,075 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
$1,224 Vol.
3%
0.5–1.0%
$872 Vol.
2%
1.0–1.5%
$860 Vol.
2%
1.5–2.0%
$1,030 Vol.
5%
2.0–2.5%
$2,353 Vol.
6%
2.5–3.0%
$3,925 Vol.
11%
≥3.0%
$24,811 Vol.
70%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Strong tracking estimates for Q3 2026 real GDP, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model recently projecting annualized growth near or above 4% and private forecasts from firms like Wells Fargo and TD Economics centering around 2.8–3.0%, underpin the 69.5% market-implied odds on ≥3.0% growth. AI-driven capital expenditures, broadening business investment, and resilient consumer spending amid a stable labor market—unemployment at 4.1% and August payrolls up 162,000—have supported upward revisions. The Federal Reserve’s September 2026 rate hike to the 3.75–4.00% range and updated projections for 2.3% full-year growth reflect ongoing inflation concerns but have not yet dented near-term momentum. The advance Q3 GDP release in late October will provide the key resolution catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Volume
$35,075End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Strong tracking estimates for Q3 2026 real GDP, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model recently projecting annualized growth near or above 4% and private forecasts from firms like Wells Fargo and TD Economics centering around 2.8–3.0%, underpin the 69.5% market-implied odds on ≥3.0% growth. AI-driven capital expenditures, broadening business investment, and resilient consumer spending amid a stable labor market—unemployment at 4.1% and August payrolls up 162,000—have supported upward revisions. The Federal Reserve’s September 2026 rate hike to the 3.75–4.00% range and updated projections for 2.3% full-year growth reflect ongoing inflation concerns but have not yet dented near-term momentum. The advance Q3 GDP release in late October will provide the key resolution catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$35,075End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong tracking estimates for Q3 2026 real GDP, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model recently projecting annualized growth near or above 4% and private forecasts from firms like Wells Fargo and TD Economics centering around 2.8–3.0%, underpin the 69.5% market-implied odds on ≥3.0% growth. AI-driven capital expenditures, broadening business investment, and resilient consumer spending amid a stable labor market—unemployment at 4.1% and August payrolls up 162,000—have supported upward revisions. The Federal Reserve’s September 2026 rate hike to the 3.75–4.00% range and updated projections for 2.3% full-year growth reflect ongoing inflation concerns but have not yet dented near-term momentum. The advance Q3 GDP release in late October will provide the key resolution catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions