Strong AI-driven business investment and resilient consumer spending have positioned the ≥3.0% annualized GDP growth outcome as the clear leader in market-implied odds at 69.5%. Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts Q3 2026 expansion above 5%, while private forecasts from Wells Fargo and TD Economics track 2.8–3.0% amid robust capital expenditures on data centers and equipment, plus a rebound in retail sales. Q2 growth printed a modest 1.5%, yet upward revisions to consumption and productivity gains have lifted third-quarter expectations despite wider trade deficits and the Federal Reserve’s recent 25-basis-point rate increase to the 3.75–4.00% target range. Elevated inflation near 3.4% year-over-year and stable 4.1% unemployment support the view that momentum will carry into the advance estimate due in late October.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated≥3.0% 70%
2.5–3.0% 11%
2.0–2.5% 6%
1.5–2.0% 4.7%
$35,055 Vol.
$35,055 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
3%
0.5–1.0%
2%
1.0–1.5%
2%
1.5–2.0%
5%
2.0–2.5%
6%
2.5–3.0%
11%
≥3.0%
70%
≥3.0% 70%
2.5–3.0% 11%
2.0–2.5% 6%
1.5–2.0% 4.7%
$35,055 Vol.
$35,055 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
$1,224 Vol.
3%
0.5–1.0%
$872 Vol.
2%
1.0–1.5%
$860 Vol.
2%
1.5–2.0%
$1,030 Vol.
5%
2.0–2.5%
$2,353 Vol.
6%
2.5–3.0%
$3,925 Vol.
11%
≥3.0%
$24,791 Vol.
70%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Strong AI-driven business investment and resilient consumer spending have positioned the ≥3.0% annualized GDP growth outcome as the clear leader in market-implied odds at 69.5%. Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts Q3 2026 expansion above 5%, while private forecasts from Wells Fargo and TD Economics track 2.8–3.0% amid robust capital expenditures on data centers and equipment, plus a rebound in retail sales. Q2 growth printed a modest 1.5%, yet upward revisions to consumption and productivity gains have lifted third-quarter expectations despite wider trade deficits and the Federal Reserve’s recent 25-basis-point rate increase to the 3.75–4.00% target range. Elevated inflation near 3.4% year-over-year and stable 4.1% unemployment support the view that momentum will carry into the advance estimate due in late October.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Volume
$35,055End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Strong AI-driven business investment and resilient consumer spending have positioned the ≥3.0% annualized GDP growth outcome as the clear leader in market-implied odds at 69.5%. Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts Q3 2026 expansion above 5%, while private forecasts from Wells Fargo and TD Economics track 2.8–3.0% amid robust capital expenditures on data centers and equipment, plus a rebound in retail sales. Q2 growth printed a modest 1.5%, yet upward revisions to consumption and productivity gains have lifted third-quarter expectations despite wider trade deficits and the Federal Reserve’s recent 25-basis-point rate increase to the 3.75–4.00% target range. Elevated inflation near 3.4% year-over-year and stable 4.1% unemployment support the view that momentum will carry into the advance estimate due in late October.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$35,055End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong AI-driven business investment and resilient consumer spending have positioned the ≥3.0% annualized GDP growth outcome as the clear leader in market-implied odds at 69.5%. Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts Q3 2026 expansion above 5%, while private forecasts from Wells Fargo and TD Economics track 2.8–3.0% amid robust capital expenditures on data centers and equipment, plus a rebound in retail sales. Q2 growth printed a modest 1.5%, yet upward revisions to consumption and productivity gains have lifted third-quarter expectations despite wider trade deficits and the Federal Reserve’s recent 25-basis-point rate increase to the 3.75–4.00% target range. Elevated inflation near 3.4% year-over-year and stable 4.1% unemployment support the view that momentum will carry into the advance estimate due in late October.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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