Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, below Q1’s 2.1% pace, anchors trader positioning around the 2.0–3.0% range for Q3 amid mixed early signals. Cooling labor market data, with June unemployment at 4.2% and subdued payroll gains, alongside core PCE inflation near 3.4%, support expectations for steady Fed policy at the 3.50–3.75% funds rate target. Investment-led expansion and resilient consumer spending provide upside catalysts, while supply shocks and softening job growth introduce downside risks. With outcomes clustered between 40–53% implied probability, markets reflect uncertainty ahead of the August 12 CPI release, August employment report, and September FOMC meeting that could shift the near-term growth trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2.5–3.0% 45%
≥3.0% 42%
1.0–1.5% 38%
2.0–2.5% 38%
NEW
NEW
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
38%
0.5–1.0%
38%
1.0–1.5%
38%
1.5–2.0%
37%
2.0–2.5%
38%
2.5–3.0%
45%
≥3.0%
42%
2.5–3.0% 45%
≥3.0% 42%
1.0–1.5% 38%
2.0–2.5% 38%
NEW
NEW
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
$0 Vol.
38%
0.5–1.0%
$0 Vol.
38%
1.0–1.5%
$0 Vol.
38%
1.5–2.0%
$0 Vol.
37%
2.0–2.5%
$0 Vol.
38%
2.5–3.0%
$0 Vol.
45%
≥3.0%
$0 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, below Q1’s 2.1% pace, anchors trader positioning around the 2.0–3.0% range for Q3 amid mixed early signals. Cooling labor market data, with June unemployment at 4.2% and subdued payroll gains, alongside core PCE inflation near 3.4%, support expectations for steady Fed policy at the 3.50–3.75% funds rate target. Investment-led expansion and resilient consumer spending provide upside catalysts, while supply shocks and softening job growth introduce downside risks. With outcomes clustered between 40–53% implied probability, markets reflect uncertainty ahead of the August 12 CPI release, August employment report, and September FOMC meeting that could shift the near-term growth trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, below Q1’s 2.1% pace, anchors trader positioning around the 2.0–3.0% range for Q3 amid mixed early signals. Cooling labor market data, with June unemployment at 4.2% and subdued payroll gains, alongside core PCE inflation near 3.4%, support expectations for steady Fed policy at the 3.50–3.75% funds rate target. Investment-led expansion and resilient consumer spending provide upside catalysts, while supply shocks and softening job growth introduce downside risks. With outcomes clustered between 40–53% implied probability, markets reflect uncertainty ahead of the August 12 CPI release, August employment report, and September FOMC meeting that could shift the near-term growth trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, below Q1’s 2.1% pace, anchors trader positioning around the 2.0–3.0% range for Q3 amid mixed early signals. Cooling labor market data, with June unemployment at 4.2% and subdued payroll gains, alongside core PCE inflation near 3.4%, support expectations for steady Fed policy at the 3.50–3.75% funds rate target. Investment-led expansion and resilient consumer spending provide upside catalysts, while supply shocks and softening job growth introduce downside risks. With outcomes clustered between 40–53% implied probability, markets reflect uncertainty ahead of the August 12 CPI release, August employment report, and September FOMC meeting that could shift the near-term growth trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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