Recent monthly GDP data through July 2026 showed continued 0.4% three-month growth, extending the Q2 pace of 0.4% QoQ, yet the Bank of England’s July and September Monetary Policy Reports highlight weakening underlying momentum. The Middle East conflict has elevated energy prices, eroding real household incomes, dampening confidence, and tightening financial conditions, with the BoE projecting near-zero underlying GDP growth for Q3. Rising CPI to 3.1% in August and expectations of further increases have kept Bank Rate at 3.75%, limiting policy support. These factors position the 0.4–0.5% range as the modal outcome in trader pricing while sustaining probability on lower or negative prints amid heightened uncertainty ahead of the first Q3 estimate.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.4–0.5% 40%
0.2–0.3% 22%
0.6–0.7% 13.8%
Negative 10%
$22,271 Vol.
$22,271 Vol.
Nov 12, 2026
Negative
10%
0.0–0.1%
6%
0.2–0.3%
22%
0.4–0.5%
40%
0.6–0.7%
14%
0.8–0.9%
4%
1.0%+
2%
0.4–0.5% 40%
0.2–0.3% 22%
0.6–0.7% 13.8%
Negative 10%
$22,271 Vol.
$22,271 Vol.
Nov 12, 2026
Negative
$4,232 Vol.
10%
0.0–0.1%
$7,224 Vol.
6%
0.2–0.3%
$7,798 Vol.
22%
0.4–0.5%
$2,023 Vol.
40%
0.6–0.7%
$378 Vol.
14%
0.8–0.9%
$296 Vol.
4%
1.0%+
$320 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent monthly GDP data through July 2026 showed continued 0.4% three-month growth, extending the Q2 pace of 0.4% QoQ, yet the Bank of England’s July and September Monetary Policy Reports highlight weakening underlying momentum. The Middle East conflict has elevated energy prices, eroding real household incomes, dampening confidence, and tightening financial conditions, with the BoE projecting near-zero underlying GDP growth for Q3. Rising CPI to 3.1% in August and expectations of further increases have kept Bank Rate at 3.75%, limiting policy support. These factors position the 0.4–0.5% range as the modal outcome in trader pricing while sustaining probability on lower or negative prints amid heightened uncertainty ahead of the first Q3 estimate.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ET
Volume
$22,271End Date
Nov 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent monthly GDP data through July 2026 showed continued 0.4% three-month growth, extending the Q2 pace of 0.4% QoQ, yet the Bank of England’s July and September Monetary Policy Reports highlight weakening underlying momentum. The Middle East conflict has elevated energy prices, eroding real household incomes, dampening confidence, and tightening financial conditions, with the BoE projecting near-zero underlying GDP growth for Q3. Rising CPI to 3.1% in August and expectations of further increases have kept Bank Rate at 3.75%, limiting policy support. These factors position the 0.4–0.5% range as the modal outcome in trader pricing while sustaining probability on lower or negative prints amid heightened uncertainty ahead of the first Q3 estimate.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$22,271End Date
Nov 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly GDP data through July 2026 showed continued 0.4% three-month growth, extending the Q2 pace of 0.4% QoQ, yet the Bank of England’s July and September Monetary Policy Reports highlight weakening underlying momentum. The Middle East conflict has elevated energy prices, eroding real household incomes, dampening confidence, and tightening financial conditions, with the BoE projecting near-zero underlying GDP growth for Q3. Rising CPI to 3.1% in August and expectations of further increases have kept Bank Rate at 3.75%, limiting policy support. These factors position the 0.4–0.5% range as the modal outcome in trader pricing while sustaining probability on lower or negative prints amid heightened uncertainty ahead of the first Q3 estimate.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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