Skip to main content
icon for CA-14 Special Election Winner?
Politics·House Of Representatives

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

icon for CA-14 Special Election Winner?
Politics·House Of Representatives

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

Aisha Wahab 84%

Melissa Hernandez 14.3%

Carin Elam <1%

Wendy Huang <1%

Polymarket

$24,505 Vol.

Aisha Wahab 84%

Melissa Hernandez 14.3%

Carin Elam <1%

Wendy Huang <1%

Polymarket

$24,505 Vol.

Aisha Wahab

$16,272 Vol.

84%

Melissa Hernandez

$2,411 Vol.

14%

Wendy Huang

$1,320 Vol.

1%

Carin Elam

$826 Vol.

1%

Matt Ortega

$1,034 Vol.

<1%

Rakhi Israni Singh

$1,711 Vol.

<1%

Victor Aguilar Jr.

$930 Vol.

<1%

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.Aisha Wahab leads trader consensus in the CA-14 special election runoff at 84% implied probability due to her decisive 42.8% finish in the June 16 special primary, more than double Melissa Hernandez’s 16.8% share. As a sitting state senator with prior congressional candidacy experience and the California Democratic Party endorsement, Wahab consolidated support among Democratic voters in the district. Hernandez, a former Dublin mayor and BART board member, advanced as the second-place finisher but trails significantly in the two-candidate August 18 contest. Other listed candidates failed to reach the runoff, leaving a binary race where Wahab’s primary margin and institutional backing shape current pricing ahead of the final vote count.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Volume
$24,505
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.Aisha Wahab leads trader consensus in the CA-14 special election runoff at 84% implied probability due to her decisive 42.8% finish in the June 16 special primary, more than double Melissa Hernandez’s 16.8% share. As a sitting state senator with prior congressional candidacy experience and the California Democratic Party endorsement, Wahab consolidated support among Democratic voters in the district. Hernandez, a former Dublin mayor and BART board member, advanced as the second-place finisher but trails significantly in the two-candidate August 18 contest. Other listed candidates failed to reach the runoff, leaving a binary race where Wahab’s primary margin and institutional backing shape current pricing ahead of the final vote count.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Volume
$24,505
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Related

icon for Will Marcye Scott win the 2026 GA-13 special election?

Will Marcye Scott win the 2026 GA-13 special election?

89%
icon for Will Angela Gonzales-Torres win the CA-34 House seat?

Will Angela Gonzales-Torres win the CA-34 House seat?

57%
icon for Will Scott Timko win the special election to fill the Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 12 seat?

Will Scott Timko win the special election to fill the Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 12 seat?

87%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"CA-14 Special Election Winner?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Aisha Wahab" at 84%, followed by "Melissa Hernandez" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 84¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" has generated $24.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "CA-14 Special Election Winner?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" is "Aisha Wahab" at 84%, meaning the market assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Melissa Hernandez" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.