Republicans currently hold a narrow 218-212 majority in the House with four vacancies and one independent caucusing with them, a margin sufficient to withstand limited net losses ahead of the November 2026 elections. With only three months remaining, the short timeline limits opportunities for special elections or unexpected vacancies to produce enough Democratic flips to drop the party below the 218-seat threshold. Recent special election results have shown mixed partisan shifts without altering overall control, consistent with historical patterns where major House turnover occurs primarily through general elections rather than interim contests. Traders assign 98% probability to retention because structural barriers—including the compressed schedule and current seat math—make pre-midterm loss improbable. Plausible but low-probability scenarios that could still shift the balance include clustered Democratic victories in remaining specials or multiple simultaneous vacancies filled by the opposing party.