Bilateral security cooperation and measurable progress on border metrics underpin the overwhelming trader consensus against a U.S. invasion of Mexico in 2026. Mexican forces have expanded operations against cartels with U.S. intelligence support, producing sharp declines in crossings and fentanyl seizures, while recent Senate-approved joint training exercises reflect sustained coordination rather than confrontation. Mexican officials have repeatedly affirmed that any action must respect sovereignty and occur without subordination, and U.S. planning for direct strikes has been deprioritized amid these gains. An invasion remains improbable absent a major escalation in cartel activity, a sudden breakdown in diplomatic channels, or a unilateral policy shift overriding current bilateral frameworks.