Trader consensus implies a 93.5% probability against a U.S. invasion of Mexico in 2026, driven by the absence of any overt military mobilization despite President Trump's sustained rhetoric on combating cartels designated as foreign terrorist organizations. Most recently, a May 13 CNN report alleged CIA-facilitated assassinations of cartel operatives inside Mexico—promptly denied by President Claudia Sheinbaum as sovereignty violations—signals covert escalation rather than ground troop deployment. January's joint U.S.-Mexico security cooperation statement followed Trump's rejected proposals for joint operations, prioritizing diplomacy, tariffs, and bilateral pressure over invasion. Historical U.S. aversion to invading sovereign neighbors, coupled with potential congressional and international backlash, sustains this low-risk assessment barring major provocations like widespread cartel attacks on U.S. soil.