Strengthened U.S.-Colombia security cooperation under President Abelardo de la Espriella’s administration drives the 98% trader consensus against a U.S. invasion in 2026. The new right-wing government has joined U.S.-led initiatives like the Shield of the Americas, restored military ties strained under the prior administration, and pursued joint counternarcotics efforts including intelligence sharing, equipment support, and potential operations against armed groups, with Colombian forces retaining primary responsibility on the ground. Recent diplomatic engagements, including Secretary Marco Rubio’s September 2026 visit and agreements on critical minerals and civil nuclear cooperation, further signal partnership rather than confrontation. Realistic shifts could arise from rapid escalation in regional drug trafficking, spillover from Venezuela, or unexpected political changes in Bogotá that alter consent for U.S. involvement, though current developments point to sustained alignment.