Recent U.S.-Colombia diplomatic engagement and a shift toward expanded security cooperation have anchored trader expectations against any invasion in 2026. Early-year tensions, including U.S. counternarcotics decertification, sanctions on Colombian officials, and public statements linking drug flows to possible operations, eased after a February presidential meeting and Colombia’s May elections. The incoming administration has prioritized joint efforts such as Plan Patriot 2.0 for intelligence sharing, counter-drug operations, and regional alliances, replacing confrontation with bilateral military planning. With over half the year elapsed without escalation and scheduled cooperation advancing, the wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing assigns low probability to armed intervention. Unforeseen events such as a major trafficking incident or abrupt policy reversal remain the primary variables that could still alter the trajectory before year-end.