The January 2026 U.S. military operation that captured Nicolás Maduro and installed interim leadership under Delcy Rodríguez shifted U.S.-Venezuela dynamics toward stabilization and economic cooperation rather than sustained ground operations. Recent catalysts include the August oil venture granting U.S. entities stakes in major reserves, September U.N. General Assembly meetings between Trump administration officials and Rodríguez on debt restructuring and elections, and releases of political prisoners amid ongoing transition talks. These developments, alongside eased sanctions and resumed diplomacy, anchor trader consensus against near-term full-scale invasion scenarios. Scheduled factors such as election timelines and further resource negotiations could still influence probabilities within any defined resolution window.