Democratic control of the House after the November 2026 midterms represents the central driver of trader pricing on Trump impeachment markets, with Polymarket showing roughly 2% odds by December 31, 2026, rising to 41-55% by late 2027 and around 66-69% before the end of the term. Recent Democratic resolutions, including Al Green’s effort tied to immigration enforcement and Steve Cohen’s 26 articles introduced in September 2026, were tabled by the current Republican majority. House leaders from both parties have publicly framed a Democratic takeover as the trigger for renewed proceedings, while Senate conviction remains structurally difficult. Traders therefore price the outcome as contingent on midterm results and subsequent House votes rather than immediate action.