Democratic expectations of regaining House control in the 2026 midterms represent the core driver behind the 67% implied probability that Trump will face impeachment before January 2029. Multiple House resolutions, including H.Res. 939 and H.Res. 537, have already been introduced citing high crimes and misdemeanors tied to executive actions, judicial criticism, and election-related statements. Over 70 Democrats have publicly called for articles of impeachment or invocation of the 25th Amendment, while Senate Democrats such as Ed Markey have echoed these demands following recent addresses on electoral integrity. Traders view these developments, alongside ongoing legal challenges to administration policies, as signaling strong partisan momentum once chamber control shifts, though Senate conviction remains a separate and higher bar.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated64% chance
$88,724 Vol.
$88,724 Vol.
Jan 20, 2029
64% chance
$88,724 Vol.
$88,724 Vol.
Jan 20, 2029
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democratic expectations of regaining House control in the 2026 midterms represent the core driver behind the 67% implied probability that Trump will face impeachment before January 2029. Multiple House resolutions, including H.Res. 939 and H.Res. 537, have already been introduced citing high crimes and misdemeanors tied to executive actions, judicial criticism, and election-related statements. Over 70 Democrats have publicly called for articles of impeachment or invocation of the 25th Amendment, while Senate Democrats such as Ed Markey have echoed these demands following recent addresses on electoral integrity. Traders view these developments, alongside ongoing legal challenges to administration policies, as signaling strong partisan momentum once chamber control shifts, though Senate conviction remains a separate and higher bar.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$88,724End Date
Jan 20, 2029Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democratic expectations of regaining House control in the 2026 midterms represent the core driver behind the 67% implied probability that Trump will face impeachment before January 2029. Multiple House resolutions, including H.Res. 939 and H.Res. 537, have already been introduced citing high crimes and misdemeanors tied to executive actions, judicial criticism, and election-related statements. Over 70 Democrats have publicly called for articles of impeachment or invocation of the 25th Amendment, while Senate Democrats such as Ed Markey have echoed these demands following recent addresses on electoral integrity. Traders view these developments, alongside ongoing legal challenges to administration policies, as signaling strong partisan momentum once chamber control shifts, though Senate conviction remains a separate and higher bar.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Volume
$88,724End Date
Jan 20, 2029Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Democratic expectations of regaining House control in the 2026 midterms represent the core driver behind the 67% implied probability that Trump will face impeachment before January 2029. Multiple House resolutions, including H.Res. 939 and H.Res. 537, have already been introduced citing high crimes and misdemeanors tied to executive actions, judicial criticism, and election-related statements. Over 70 Democrats have publicly called for articles of impeachment or invocation of the 25th Amendment, while Senate Democrats such as Ed Markey have echoed these demands following recent addresses on electoral integrity. Traders view these developments, alongside ongoing legal challenges to administration policies, as signaling strong partisan momentum once chamber control shifts, though Senate conviction remains a separate and higher bar.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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