Trump’s renewed push for U.S. acquisition of Greenland since early 2025 has involved appointing a special envoy, exploring diplomatic and economic levers, and proposing negotiations at Davos in January 2026 that produced only a loose framework for Arctic cooperation without any transfer of sovereignty. Denmark and Greenlandic authorities have consistently rejected sale or annexation, citing self-determination rights and noting that roughly 85 percent of residents oppose incorporation, while European allies have signaled unified opposition. These structural barriers—combined with the absence of any binding agreement or legislative path in the remaining months of 2026—underpin the market’s 96.4 percent probability on “No.” Realistic developments that could still shift odds include a sudden bilateral breakthrough granting limited U.S. territorial claims, major Greenlandic political realignment, or an unforeseen crisis altering strategic calculations before the 2027 deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4% chance
$35,267,328 Vol.
$35,267,328 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
4% chance
$35,267,328 Vol.
$35,267,328 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Denmark that Greenland will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Greenland has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.Trump’s renewed push for U.S. acquisition of Greenland since early 2025 has involved appointing a special envoy, exploring diplomatic and economic levers, and proposing negotiations at Davos in January 2026 that produced only a loose framework for Arctic cooperation without any transfer of sovereignty. Denmark and Greenlandic authorities have consistently rejected sale or annexation, citing self-determination rights and noting that roughly 85 percent of residents oppose incorporation, while European allies have signaled unified opposition. These structural barriers—combined with the absence of any binding agreement or legislative path in the remaining months of 2026—underpin the market’s 96.4 percent probability on “No.” Realistic developments that could still shift odds include a sudden bilateral breakthrough granting limited U.S. territorial claims, major Greenlandic political realignment, or an unforeseen crisis altering strategic calculations before the 2027 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Denmark that Greenland will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Greenland has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Denmark that Greenland will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Greenland has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Market Opened: Dec 22, 2025, 7:55 PM ET
Volume
$35,267,328End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 22, 2025, 7:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Denmark that Greenland will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Greenland has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.Trump’s renewed push for U.S. acquisition of Greenland since early 2025 has involved appointing a special envoy, exploring diplomatic and economic levers, and proposing negotiations at Davos in January 2026 that produced only a loose framework for Arctic cooperation without any transfer of sovereignty. Denmark and Greenlandic authorities have consistently rejected sale or annexation, citing self-determination rights and noting that roughly 85 percent of residents oppose incorporation, while European allies have signaled unified opposition. These structural barriers—combined with the absence of any binding agreement or legislative path in the remaining months of 2026—underpin the market’s 96.4 percent probability on “No.” Realistic developments that could still shift odds include a sudden bilateral breakthrough granting limited U.S. territorial claims, major Greenlandic political realignment, or an unforeseen crisis altering strategic calculations before the 2027 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Denmark that Greenland will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Greenland has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Denmark that Greenland will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Greenland has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Volume
$35,267,328End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 22, 2025, 7:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump’s renewed push for U.S. acquisition of Greenland since early 2025 has involved appointing a special envoy, exploring diplomatic and economic levers, and proposing negotiations at Davos in January 2026 that produced only a loose framework for Arctic cooperation without any transfer of sovereignty. Denmark and Greenlandic authorities have consistently rejected sale or annexation, citing self-determination rights and noting that roughly 85 percent of residents oppose incorporation, while European allies have signaled unified opposition. These structural barriers—combined with the absence of any binding agreement or legislative path in the remaining months of 2026—underpin the market’s 96.4 percent probability on “No.” Realistic developments that could still shift odds include a sudden bilateral breakthrough granting limited U.S. territorial claims, major Greenlandic political realignment, or an unforeseen crisis altering strategic calculations before the 2027 deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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