**Traders assign a 96.4% probability to “No” because an invasion of Greenland—a NATO ally and autonomous Danish territory—would trigger immediate alliance collapse, violate core U.S. foreign-policy norms against wars of conquest, and face insurmountable domestic and legal hurdles.** Early 2026 rhetoric from the Trump administration floated military options and tariffs to pressure Denmark, yet President Trump explicitly ruled out force in his January Davos speech, shifting emphasis to negotiations over acquisition. Subsequent developments, including expanded U.S. basing talks and private-sector drilling preparations, have remained within diplomatic and commercial channels rather than crossing into military action. With roughly four months left in 2026, no mobilization or congressional authorization consistent with an invasion has materialized, reinforcing the market’s assessment that structural, alliance, and political constraints make such an outcome highly improbable absent a dramatic, unforeseen escalation.