Elon Musk’s weekly tweet volume typically clusters in the 180–220 range, which explains why those bins command the highest implied probabilities at 18.5% and 17.5% respectively. Trader consensus reflects his established pattern of high-engagement posting tied to breaking news cycles, regulatory updates, and platform developments, with recent activity showing steady mid-week spikes rather than extreme bursts. The tight spread across the 160–239 buckets highlights how small shifts in daily cadence—driven by earnings calls, political commentary, or viral threads—can swing the final tally by dozens of posts. Upcoming catalysts include any major SpaceX or Tesla announcements that could accelerate output, while historical weekly averages provide the baseline traders are weighting most heavily.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated180-199 19%
200-219 18%
220-239 16%
160-179 14%
$162,882 Vol.
$162,882 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
1%
120-139
3%
140-159
8%
160-179
14%
180-199
19%
200-219
18%
220-239
16%
240-259
11%
260-279
7%
280-299
3%
300-319
2%
320-339
1%
340-359
1%
360-379
1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
180-199 19%
200-219 18%
220-239 16%
160-179 14%
$162,882 Vol.
$162,882 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
1%
120-139
3%
140-159
8%
160-179
14%
180-199
19%
200-219
18%
220-239
16%
240-259
11%
260-279
7%
280-299
3%
300-319
2%
320-339
1%
340-359
1%
360-379
1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s weekly tweet volume typically clusters in the 180–220 range, which explains why those bins command the highest implied probabilities at 18.5% and 17.5% respectively. Trader consensus reflects his established pattern of high-engagement posting tied to breaking news cycles, regulatory updates, and platform developments, with recent activity showing steady mid-week spikes rather than extreme bursts. The tight spread across the 160–239 buckets highlights how small shifts in daily cadence—driven by earnings calls, political commentary, or viral threads—can swing the final tally by dozens of posts. Upcoming catalysts include any major SpaceX or Tesla announcements that could accelerate output, while historical weekly averages provide the baseline traders are weighting most heavily.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions