Spider-Man: Brand New Day holds a slight edge in trader sentiment for the second-biggest 2026 opening weekend, with implied odds near 52.5 percent amid a crowded field of major releases clustered around 50 percent. Avengers: Doomsday trails at 44.5 percent while several other titles sit near even odds, reflecting uncertainty over release timing, franchise momentum, and presale tracking. Key differentiators include Spider-Man's established brand strength versus Avengers' multiverse draw, alongside competition from Dune: Messiah and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping for audience attention and screen allocation. Historical patterns show superhero openers can surge or stall based on marketing campaigns and critical buzz closer to launch, leaving room for late shifts as box-office comps and theater commitments clarify through the fall.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhich movie has 2nd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Which movie has 2nd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 53%
Avengers: Doomsday 45%
Dune: Messiah <1%
Toy Story 5 <1%
$118,403 Vol.
$118,403 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
53%
Avengers: Doomsday
45%
Dune: Messiah
1%
Toy Story 5
<1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
<1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 53%
Avengers: Doomsday 45%
Dune: Messiah <1%
Toy Story 5 <1%
$118,403 Vol.
$118,403 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
$60,125 Vol.
53%
Avengers: Doomsday
$45,546 Vol.
45%
Dune: Messiah
$8,291 Vol.
1%
Toy Story 5
$2,679 Vol.
<1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
$482 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day holds a slight edge in trader sentiment for the second-biggest 2026 opening weekend, with implied odds near 52.5 percent amid a crowded field of major releases clustered around 50 percent. Avengers: Doomsday trails at 44.5 percent while several other titles sit near even odds, reflecting uncertainty over release timing, franchise momentum, and presale tracking. Key differentiators include Spider-Man's established brand strength versus Avengers' multiverse draw, alongside competition from Dune: Messiah and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping for audience attention and screen allocation. Historical patterns show superhero openers can surge or stall based on marketing campaigns and critical buzz closer to launch, leaving room for late shifts as box-office comps and theater commitments clarify through the fall.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 11:25 AM ET
Volume
$118,403End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 11:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day holds a slight edge in trader sentiment for the second-biggest 2026 opening weekend, with implied odds near 52.5 percent amid a crowded field of major releases clustered around 50 percent. Avengers: Doomsday trails at 44.5 percent while several other titles sit near even odds, reflecting uncertainty over release timing, franchise momentum, and presale tracking. Key differentiators include Spider-Man's established brand strength versus Avengers' multiverse draw, alongside competition from Dune: Messiah and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping for audience attention and screen allocation. Historical patterns show superhero openers can surge or stall based on marketing campaigns and critical buzz closer to launch, leaving room for late shifts as box-office comps and theater commitments clarify through the fall.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$118,403End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 11:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Spider-Man: Brand New Day holds a slight edge in trader sentiment for the second-biggest 2026 opening weekend, with implied odds near 52.5 percent amid a crowded field of major releases clustered around 50 percent. Avengers: Doomsday trails at 44.5 percent while several other titles sit near even odds, reflecting uncertainty over release timing, franchise momentum, and presale tracking. Key differentiators include Spider-Man's established brand strength versus Avengers' multiverse draw, alongside competition from Dune: Messiah and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping for audience attention and screen allocation. Historical patterns show superhero openers can surge or stall based on marketing campaigns and critical buzz closer to launch, leaving room for late shifts as box-office comps and theater commitments clarify through the fall.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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