Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million domestic opening in late July established it as the clear frontrunner for 2026’s biggest debut, surpassing Avengers: Endgame and delivering the second-largest opening weekend ever. Strong critical reception, Tom Holland and Zendaya’s star power, and premium format dominance drove the result far beyond pre-release tracking. Avengers: Doomsday maintains a credible 35% implied probability through robust presales that already outpace prior benchmarks three months before its December 18 release, though current projections still place it below Brand New Day’s realized total. The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping and Dune: Messiah register negligible odds, as their November and December slots face franchise-specific ceilings and, in Dune’s case, direct holiday competition that limits opening-weekend upside relative to the established leaders.