The market for the third-biggest opening weekend of 2026 stays tightly bunched because multiple high-profile franchises are competing for prime summer and holiday slots with comparable built-in audiences. Toy Story 5’s modest 52% edge reflects Pixar’s proven track record for family-driven debuts and Disney’s marketing muscle, while Marvel’s Avengers: Doomsday, the new Spider-Man title, Dune: Messiah, The Hunger Games prequel, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, and Nolan’s The Odyssey sit within a point or two on the strength of their respective IP legacies and expected wide releases. Key swing factors include final release-date positioning, early presale velocity, trailer reception, and any direct calendar clashes that could split audience dollars. Traders are watching for the first concrete tracking numbers and confirmed playdates in the coming months, as small shifts in those metrics can quickly reorder the field.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhich movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Which movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Toy Story 5 50%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie 50%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping 49%
Avengers: Doomsday 48%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
Toy Story 5
50%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
50%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
49%
Avengers: Doomsday
48%
Dune: Messiah
46%
The Odyssey
45%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
43%
Toy Story 5 50%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie 50%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping 49%
Avengers: Doomsday 48%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
Toy Story 5
$0 Vol.
50%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
$0 Vol.
50%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
$0 Vol.
49%
Avengers: Doomsday
$0 Vol.
48%
Dune: Messiah
$0 Vol.
46%
The Odyssey
$0 Vol.
45%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
$0 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.The market for the third-biggest opening weekend of 2026 stays tightly bunched because multiple high-profile franchises are competing for prime summer and holiday slots with comparable built-in audiences. Toy Story 5’s modest 52% edge reflects Pixar’s proven track record for family-driven debuts and Disney’s marketing muscle, while Marvel’s Avengers: Doomsday, the new Spider-Man title, Dune: Messiah, The Hunger Games prequel, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, and Nolan’s The Odyssey sit within a point or two on the strength of their respective IP legacies and expected wide releases. Key swing factors include final release-date positioning, early presale velocity, trailer reception, and any direct calendar clashes that could split audience dollars. Traders are watching for the first concrete tracking numbers and confirmed playdates in the coming months, as small shifts in those metrics can quickly reorder the field.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.The market for the third-biggest opening weekend of 2026 stays tightly bunched because multiple high-profile franchises are competing for prime summer and holiday slots with comparable built-in audiences. Toy Story 5’s modest 52% edge reflects Pixar’s proven track record for family-driven debuts and Disney’s marketing muscle, while Marvel’s Avengers: Doomsday, the new Spider-Man title, Dune: Messiah, The Hunger Games prequel, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, and Nolan’s The Odyssey sit within a point or two on the strength of their respective IP legacies and expected wide releases. Key swing factors include final release-date positioning, early presale velocity, trailer reception, and any direct calendar clashes that could split audience dollars. Traders are watching for the first concrete tracking numbers and confirmed playdates in the coming months, as small shifts in those metrics can quickly reorder the field.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The market for the third-biggest opening weekend of 2026 stays tightly bunched because multiple high-profile franchises are competing for prime summer and holiday slots with comparable built-in audiences. Toy Story 5’s modest 52% edge reflects Pixar’s proven track record for family-driven debuts and Disney’s marketing muscle, while Marvel’s Avengers: Doomsday, the new Spider-Man title, Dune: Messiah, The Hunger Games prequel, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, and Nolan’s The Odyssey sit within a point or two on the strength of their respective IP legacies and expected wide releases. Key swing factors include final release-date positioning, early presale velocity, trailer reception, and any direct calendar clashes that could split audience dollars. Traders are watching for the first concrete tracking numbers and confirmed playdates in the coming months, as small shifts in those metrics can quickly reorder the field.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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