Early festival momentum from the 2026 Sundance Film Festival has shaped initial trader sentiment for the Oscars 2027 Best Documentary Feature race, with Once Upon a Time in Harlem leading at 18.5% implied probability on the strength of its Neon acquisition, Cannes Directors’ Fortnight nod, and strong critical reception for its Harlem Renaissance footage. American Doctor follows at 14%, buoyed by its timely Gaza subject matter, multiple festival screenings, and audience awards, while Nuisance Bear benefits from its Sundance Grand Jury Prize and poetic wildlife focus. Alex Gibney’s Musk sits at 9% amid ambitious distributor plans for a wide campaign. With the field wide open this far ahead of voting, the market reflects uncertainty around release strategies, late-year contenders, and how guild and critics’ awards will break ties among these early frontrunners.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOscars 2027: Best Documentary Feature Film Winner
Oscars 2027: Best Documentary Feature Film Winner
Once Upon a Time in Harlem 19%
American Doctor 14%
Nuisance Bear 10%
Musk 9%
NEW
NEW
Mar 14, 2027
Once Upon a Time in Harlem
19%
American Doctor
14%
Nuisance Bear
10%
Musk
9%
One in a Million
7%
Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party
5%
Tutu
4%
Once Upon a Time in Harlem 19%
American Doctor 14%
Nuisance Bear 10%
Musk 9%
NEW
NEW
Mar 14, 2027
Once Upon a Time in Harlem
$27 Vol.
19%
American Doctor
$5 Vol.
14%
Nuisance Bear
$5 Vol.
10%
Musk
$0 Vol.
9%
One in a Million
$5 Vol.
7%
Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party
$45 Vol.
5%
Tutu
$5 Vol.
4%
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Early festival momentum from the 2026 Sundance Film Festival has shaped initial trader sentiment for the Oscars 2027 Best Documentary Feature race, with Once Upon a Time in Harlem leading at 18.5% implied probability on the strength of its Neon acquisition, Cannes Directors’ Fortnight nod, and strong critical reception for its Harlem Renaissance footage. American Doctor follows at 14%, buoyed by its timely Gaza subject matter, multiple festival screenings, and audience awards, while Nuisance Bear benefits from its Sundance Grand Jury Prize and poetic wildlife focus. Alex Gibney’s Musk sits at 9% amid ambitious distributor plans for a wide campaign. With the field wide open this far ahead of voting, the market reflects uncertainty around release strategies, late-year contenders, and how guild and critics’ awards will break ties among these early frontrunners.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 4:40 AM ET
Volume
$92End Date
Mar 14, 2027Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 4:40 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Early festival momentum from the 2026 Sundance Film Festival has shaped initial trader sentiment for the Oscars 2027 Best Documentary Feature race, with Once Upon a Time in Harlem leading at 18.5% implied probability on the strength of its Neon acquisition, Cannes Directors’ Fortnight nod, and strong critical reception for its Harlem Renaissance footage. American Doctor follows at 14%, buoyed by its timely Gaza subject matter, multiple festival screenings, and audience awards, while Nuisance Bear benefits from its Sundance Grand Jury Prize and poetic wildlife focus. Alex Gibney’s Musk sits at 9% amid ambitious distributor plans for a wide campaign. With the field wide open this far ahead of voting, the market reflects uncertainty around release strategies, late-year contenders, and how guild and critics’ awards will break ties among these early frontrunners.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$92End Date
Mar 14, 2027Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 4:40 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Early festival momentum from the 2026 Sundance Film Festival has shaped initial trader sentiment for the Oscars 2027 Best Documentary Feature race, with Once Upon a Time in Harlem leading at 18.5% implied probability on the strength of its Neon acquisition, Cannes Directors’ Fortnight nod, and strong critical reception for its Harlem Renaissance footage. American Doctor follows at 14%, buoyed by its timely Gaza subject matter, multiple festival screenings, and audience awards, while Nuisance Bear benefits from its Sundance Grand Jury Prize and poetic wildlife focus. Alex Gibney’s Musk sits at 9% amid ambitious distributor plans for a wide campaign. With the field wide open this far ahead of voting, the market reflects uncertainty around release strategies, late-year contenders, and how guild and critics’ awards will break ties among these early frontrunners.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions