US pressure on Cuba has centered on economic sanctions, an oil import blockade, and executive actions designating the island a national security threat, with the Trump administration pursuing regime change through tariffs on third-country suppliers and calls for negotiations rather than direct military intervention. Diplomatic talks, including CIA-level meetings, have continued into mid-2026 alongside Cuba's severe fuel and power shortages, while Pentagon contingency planning for limited options has not produced deployment orders or an invasion force buildup. Traders appear to weigh the high costs and political risks of a full-scale operation against Cuba's weak conventional defenses, ongoing bilateral contacts, and the administration's emphasis on non-kinetic measures, keeping the implied probability of an invasion this year near 10%.