This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia's recent test launch of the nuclear-capable RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile on May 12, 2026—hailed by President Vladimir Putin as the world's most powerful, with deployment planned by year-end—has heightened trader focus on Moscow's nuclear modernization amid the expired New START treaty in February 2026. However, no verified preparations for an actual nuclear explosion test, last conducted in 1990 at Novaya Zemlya, have emerged in the past 30 days, despite Russia's 2023 withdrawal of CTBT ratification removing legal barriers. Escalation rhetoric tied to the Ukraine conflict and Victory Day parade persists, but seismic monitoring shows no activity; upcoming missile drills or doctrine updates could shift sentiment in this low-probability deterrence signaling environment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Russia's recent test launch of the nuclear-capable RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile on May 12, 2026—hailed by President Vladimir Putin as the world's most powerful, with deployment planned by year-end—has heightened trader focus on Moscow's nuclear modernization amid the expired New START treaty in February 2026. However, no verified preparations for an actual nuclear explosion test, last conducted in 1990 at Novaya Zemlya, have emerged in the past 30 days, despite Russia's 2023 withdrawal of CTBT ratification removing legal barriers. Escalation rhetoric tied to the Ukraine conflict and Victory Day parade persists, but seismic monitoring shows no activity; upcoming missile drills or doctrine updates could shift sentiment in this low-probability deterrence signaling environment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
May 12 2026
Russia successfully test-fires the new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, with President Putin announcing deployment planned by the end of 2026
While the test demonstrated modernization of Russia’s nuclear forces, it was a missile launch without a nuclear detonation, maintaining low market odds for a nuclear test.
May 12 2026
Russian President Vladimir Putin announces successful test launch of the new Sarmat strategic nuclear missile and confirms deployment planned by year-end, emphasizing
September 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%
Russian President Vladimir Putin announces successful test launch of the new Sarmat strategic nuclear missile and confirms deployment planned by year-end, emphasizing modernization without conducting a nuclear test
May 6 2026
Russia conducts missile tests at the Kura range in Kamchatka, including launches of nuclear-capable missiles ahead of Victory Day celebrations
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%
These tests involved missile launches capable of carrying nuclear warheads but did not include any nuclear detonations, signaling escalation but not a nuclear test.
May 6 2026
Russian Ministry of Defence announces ballistic missile tests at the Kura range, signaling military strength but not involving nuclear detonations, maintaining low market
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%
Russian Ministry of Defence announces ballistic missile tests at the Kura range, signaling military strength but not involving nuclear detonations, maintaining low market expectations for a nuclear test
May 6 2026
Russia conducts nuclear-capable missile tests ahead of Victory Day Parade but does not conduct any nuclear detonations, demonstrating military capability without crossing the
Russia conducts nuclear-capable missile tests ahead of Victory Day Parade but does not conduct any nuclear detonations, demonstrating military capability without crossing the nuclear test threshold, which likely kept the market probability low
May 4 2026
Polymarket analysis notes that, despite Yars drills and bomber patrols, there is “absent CTBTO seismic data” and “Kremlin restraint statements,” further depressing the
December 31, 2026 drops to 4%5%
Polymarket analysis notes that, despite Yars drills and bomber patrols, there is “absent CTBTO seismic data” and “Kremlin restraint statements,” further depressing the test‑probability outlook
May 1 2026
Congressional Research Service report reiterates that Russia’s “modernization” is hampered by failed tests and that the New START treaty has just expired – The report underscored
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%2%
Congressional Research Service report reiterates that Russia’s “modernization” is hampered by failed tests and that the New START treaty has just expired – The report underscored that, despite the treaty’s lapse, Russia publicly pledged to continue abiding by its limits, reinforcing trader sentiment that a test was unlikely before Sept 30.
Apr 30 2026
IAEA Director‑General Rafael Grossi warns that any nuclear test by Russia (or the U.S.) would spark a cascade of worldwide testing – The UN‑backed warning amplified concerns about
September 30, 2026 dips to 8%1%
IAEA Director‑General Rafael Grossi warns that any nuclear test by Russia (or the U.S.) would spark a cascade of worldwide testing – The UN‑backed warning amplified concerns about escalation, leading markets to further discount the probability of a Russian test in the near term.
Apr 29 2026
The head of the organization overseeing the nuclear test ban treaty reiterates warnings that a nuclear test by Russia or the U.S.
would lead to other nations following suit, reinforcing the global norm against testing and reducing market expectations for a Russian test
Apr 21 2026
Rafael Grossi, head of the organization overseeing the nuclear test ban treaty, warns that any nuclear test by the U.S., Russia, or others would trigger a global cascade of tests,
Rafael Grossi, head of the organization overseeing the nuclear test ban treaty, warns that any nuclear test by the U.S., Russia, or others would trigger a global cascade of tests, emphasizing the high stakes and deterring Russia from testing
Apr 21 2026
Head of the International Atomic Energy Agency warns that renewed nuclear testing by the U.S.
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%3%
or Russia would trigger global proliferation, highlighting Russia’s 2023 revocation of its nuclear test ban treaty ratification and raising international alarm about potential tests
Apr 18 2026
Russian Foreign Ministry publicly rejects any possibility of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine – The statement was interpreted as a broader signal of restraint on nuclear
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%3%
Russian Foreign Ministry publicly rejects any possibility of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine – The statement was interpreted as a broader signal of restraint on nuclear activities, contributing to the continued decline in the “Yes”
Mar 31 2026
U.S. intelligence community’s 2026 Annual Threat Assessment reports multiple failed tests of new Russian nuclear weapons systems and ongoing modernization efforts without confirmed nuclear detonations
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
This official assessment highlighted Russia’s struggles with new nuclear system tests, reducing market confidence in an imminent nuclear test.
Mar 31 2026
U.S. intelligence community’s 2026 Annual Threat Assessment reports multiple failed tests of new Russian nuclear weapons systems and ongoing modernization efforts without
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%41%
U.S. intelligence community’s 2026 Annual Threat Assessment reports multiple failed tests of new Russian nuclear weapons systems and ongoing modernization efforts without confirmed nuclear detonations, reducing market confidence in an imminent Russian nuclear test
Mar 30 2026
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov announces Moscow will continue notifying the U.S.
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
of missile launches despite suspending the last nuclear arms control treaty, signaling ongoing restraint in nuclear activities despite treaty tensions
Mar 15 2026
U.S. intelligence briefing flags “multiple failed tests” of new Russian nuclear systems – A March testimony cited in the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment warned that Russia’s recent
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%
U.S. intelligence briefing flags “multiple failed tests” of new Russian nuclear systems – A March testimony cited in the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment warned that Russia’s recent attempts at modernizing its arsenal had repeatedly failed, prompting traders to slash the perceived likelihood of a test before the end‑September deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia's recent test launch of the nuclear-capable RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile on May 12, 2026—hailed by President Vladimir Putin as the world's most powerful, with deployment planned by year-end—has heightened trader focus on Moscow's nuclear modernization amid the expired New START treaty in February 2026. However, no verified preparations for an actual nuclear explosion test, last conducted in 1990 at Novaya Zemlya, have emerged in the past 30 days, despite Russia's 2023 withdrawal of CTBT ratification removing legal barriers. Escalation rhetoric tied to the Ukraine conflict and Victory Day parade persists, but seismic monitoring shows no activity; upcoming missile drills or doctrine updates could shift sentiment in this low-probability deterrence signaling environment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Russia's recent test launch of the nuclear-capable RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile on May 12, 2026—hailed by President Vladimir Putin as the world's most powerful, with deployment planned by year-end—has heightened trader focus on Moscow's nuclear modernization amid the expired New START treaty in February 2026. However, no verified preparations for an actual nuclear explosion test, last conducted in 1990 at Novaya Zemlya, have emerged in the past 30 days, despite Russia's 2023 withdrawal of CTBT ratification removing legal barriers. Escalation rhetoric tied to the Ukraine conflict and Victory Day parade persists, but seismic monitoring shows no activity; upcoming missile drills or doctrine updates could shift sentiment in this low-probability deterrence signaling environment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
May 12 2026
Russia successfully test-fires the new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, with President Putin announcing deployment planned by the end of 2026
While the test demonstrated modernization of Russia’s nuclear forces, it was a missile launch without a nuclear detonation, maintaining low market odds for a nuclear test.
May 12 2026
Russian President Vladimir Putin announces successful test launch of the new Sarmat strategic nuclear missile and confirms deployment planned by year-end, emphasizing
September 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%
Russian President Vladimir Putin announces successful test launch of the new Sarmat strategic nuclear missile and confirms deployment planned by year-end, emphasizing modernization without conducting a nuclear test
May 6 2026
Russia conducts missile tests at the Kura range in Kamchatka, including launches of nuclear-capable missiles ahead of Victory Day celebrations
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%
These tests involved missile launches capable of carrying nuclear warheads but did not include any nuclear detonations, signaling escalation but not a nuclear test.
May 6 2026
Russian Ministry of Defence announces ballistic missile tests at the Kura range, signaling military strength but not involving nuclear detonations, maintaining low market
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%
Russian Ministry of Defence announces ballistic missile tests at the Kura range, signaling military strength but not involving nuclear detonations, maintaining low market expectations for a nuclear test
May 6 2026
Russia conducts nuclear-capable missile tests ahead of Victory Day Parade but does not conduct any nuclear detonations, demonstrating military capability without crossing the
Russia conducts nuclear-capable missile tests ahead of Victory Day Parade but does not conduct any nuclear detonations, demonstrating military capability without crossing the nuclear test threshold, which likely kept the market probability low
May 4 2026
Polymarket analysis notes that, despite Yars drills and bomber patrols, there is “absent CTBTO seismic data” and “Kremlin restraint statements,” further depressing the
December 31, 2026 drops to 4%5%
Polymarket analysis notes that, despite Yars drills and bomber patrols, there is “absent CTBTO seismic data” and “Kremlin restraint statements,” further depressing the test‑probability outlook
May 1 2026
Congressional Research Service report reiterates that Russia’s “modernization” is hampered by failed tests and that the New START treaty has just expired – The report underscored
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%2%
Congressional Research Service report reiterates that Russia’s “modernization” is hampered by failed tests and that the New START treaty has just expired – The report underscored that, despite the treaty’s lapse, Russia publicly pledged to continue abiding by its limits, reinforcing trader sentiment that a test was unlikely before Sept 30.
Apr 30 2026
IAEA Director‑General Rafael Grossi warns that any nuclear test by Russia (or the U.S.) would spark a cascade of worldwide testing – The UN‑backed warning amplified concerns about
September 30, 2026 dips to 8%1%
IAEA Director‑General Rafael Grossi warns that any nuclear test by Russia (or the U.S.) would spark a cascade of worldwide testing – The UN‑backed warning amplified concerns about escalation, leading markets to further discount the probability of a Russian test in the near term.
Apr 29 2026
The head of the organization overseeing the nuclear test ban treaty reiterates warnings that a nuclear test by Russia or the U.S.
would lead to other nations following suit, reinforcing the global norm against testing and reducing market expectations for a Russian test
Apr 21 2026
Rafael Grossi, head of the organization overseeing the nuclear test ban treaty, warns that any nuclear test by the U.S., Russia, or others would trigger a global cascade of tests,
Rafael Grossi, head of the organization overseeing the nuclear test ban treaty, warns that any nuclear test by the U.S., Russia, or others would trigger a global cascade of tests, emphasizing the high stakes and deterring Russia from testing
Apr 21 2026
Head of the International Atomic Energy Agency warns that renewed nuclear testing by the U.S.
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%3%
or Russia would trigger global proliferation, highlighting Russia’s 2023 revocation of its nuclear test ban treaty ratification and raising international alarm about potential tests
Apr 18 2026
Russian Foreign Ministry publicly rejects any possibility of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine – The statement was interpreted as a broader signal of restraint on nuclear
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%3%
Russian Foreign Ministry publicly rejects any possibility of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine – The statement was interpreted as a broader signal of restraint on nuclear activities, contributing to the continued decline in the “Yes”
Mar 31 2026
U.S. intelligence community’s 2026 Annual Threat Assessment reports multiple failed tests of new Russian nuclear weapons systems and ongoing modernization efforts without confirmed nuclear detonations
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
This official assessment highlighted Russia’s struggles with new nuclear system tests, reducing market confidence in an imminent nuclear test.
Mar 31 2026
U.S. intelligence community’s 2026 Annual Threat Assessment reports multiple failed tests of new Russian nuclear weapons systems and ongoing modernization efforts without
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%41%
U.S. intelligence community’s 2026 Annual Threat Assessment reports multiple failed tests of new Russian nuclear weapons systems and ongoing modernization efforts without confirmed nuclear detonations, reducing market confidence in an imminent Russian nuclear test
Mar 30 2026
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov announces Moscow will continue notifying the U.S.
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
of missile launches despite suspending the last nuclear arms control treaty, signaling ongoing restraint in nuclear activities despite treaty tensions
Mar 15 2026
U.S. intelligence briefing flags “multiple failed tests” of new Russian nuclear systems – A March testimony cited in the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment warned that Russia’s recent
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%
U.S. intelligence briefing flags “multiple failed tests” of new Russian nuclear systems – A March testimony cited in the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment warned that Russia’s recent attempts at modernizing its arsenal had repeatedly failed, prompting traders to slash the perceived likelihood of a test before the end‑September deadline.
"Russia nuclear test by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31, 2026" at 8%, followed by "September 30, 2026" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 8¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 8% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "Russia nuclear test by...?" has generated $1.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "Russia nuclear test by...?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Russia nuclear test by...?" is "December 31, 2026" at just 8%, with "September 30, 2026" close behind at 5%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.
The resolution rules for "Russia nuclear test by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Russia nuclear test by...?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $1.4 million traded on “Russia nuclear test by...?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
To place your first trade on "Russia nuclear test by...?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.
On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 8¢ for "December 31, 2026" in the "Russia nuclear test by...?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 8% chance that "December 31, 2026" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 8¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 92¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
The "Russia nuclear test by...?" market's scheduled end date has passed, but the market has not yet been officially resolved. The end date indicates when the underlying event is expected to occur or become knowable. It is not the moment trading stops. The market remains open for trading until the outcome is formally resolved through the resolution process. You can still buy, sell, or close your position while the market is pending resolution. Check the resolution status tracker and "Rules" section on this page for updates on the resolution timeline.
The "Russia nuclear test by...?" market has a growing discussion of 7 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Russia nuclear test by...?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions