Russia maintains its voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing despite withdrawing CTBT ratification in 2023 and heightened rhetoric tied to U.S. statements on resuming tests. Officials, including President Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov, have reiterated that Moscow will respond only if another state conducts a full-scale detonation first, while distinguishing recent successful trials of delivery systems such as the Sarmat ICBM, Burevestnik cruise missile, and Poseidon drone from prohibited explosive tests. Activity at the Novaya Zemlya site supports readiness but shows no confirmed detonations. Trader consensus prices near-term probabilities low, reflecting the absence of verified tests and emphasis on parity through restraint rather than escalation. Diplomatic signals or policy shifts by major nuclear powers remain the main variables that could alter this positioning before year-end deadlines.