Ongoing US-Iran military operations since February 2026, including joint strikes with Israel under Operation Epic Fury, have not prompted a congressional declaration of war, consistent with historical patterns where formal declarations remain rare despite sustained conflict. Recent developments center on diplomatic messaging via intermediaries and Oman-mediated talks aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran conditioning any deal on sanctions relief, reparations, and port access, while US officials report progress toward reduced hostilities as of early August. Missile shortages and domestic supply constraints have also factored into pauses in strikes. Trader consensus reflects low implied probability of formal declaration by typical resolution dates, given constitutional requirements, executive emphasis on targeted actions, and active de-escalation channels that could shift only with major breakdowns in talks or new escalatory incidents within the window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
$7,761,067 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
3%
$7,761,067 Vol.
December 31
$788,433 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military operations since February 2026, including joint strikes with Israel under Operation Epic Fury, have not prompted a congressional declaration of war, consistent with historical patterns where formal declarations remain rare despite sustained conflict. Recent developments center on diplomatic messaging via intermediaries and Oman-mediated talks aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran conditioning any deal on sanctions relief, reparations, and port access, while US officials report progress toward reduced hostilities as of early August. Missile shortages and domestic supply constraints have also factored into pauses in strikes. Trader consensus reflects low implied probability of formal declaration by typical resolution dates, given constitutional requirements, executive emphasis on targeted actions, and active de-escalation channels that could shift only with major breakdowns in talks or new escalatory incidents within the window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ET
Volume
$7,761,067End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military operations since February 2026, including joint strikes with Israel under Operation Epic Fury, have not prompted a congressional declaration of war, consistent with historical patterns where formal declarations remain rare despite sustained conflict. Recent developments center on diplomatic messaging via intermediaries and Oman-mediated talks aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran conditioning any deal on sanctions relief, reparations, and port access, while US officials report progress toward reduced hostilities as of early August. Missile shortages and domestic supply constraints have also factored into pauses in strikes. Trader consensus reflects low implied probability of formal declaration by typical resolution dates, given constitutional requirements, executive emphasis on targeted actions, and active de-escalation channels that could shift only with major breakdowns in talks or new escalatory incidents within the window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$7,761,067End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran military operations since February 2026, including joint strikes with Israel under Operation Epic Fury, have not prompted a congressional declaration of war, consistent with historical patterns where formal declarations remain rare despite sustained conflict. Recent developments center on diplomatic messaging via intermediaries and Oman-mediated talks aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran conditioning any deal on sanctions relief, reparations, and port access, while US officials report progress toward reduced hostilities as of early August. Missile shortages and domestic supply constraints have also factored into pauses in strikes. Trader consensus reflects low implied probability of formal declaration by typical resolution dates, given constitutional requirements, executive emphasis on targeted actions, and active de-escalation channels that could shift only with major breakdowns in talks or new escalatory incidents within the window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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