The US government has maintained strong opposition to any transit fees or tolls on the Strait of Hormuz, an international waterway where UNCLOS principles support free passage without charges. In mid-July 2026, President Trump briefly floated a 20% cargo reimbursement for US security costs before reversing course in favor of Gulf investment deals, consistent with prior statements from Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance rejecting tolls. No US collection of payments has occurred amid ongoing regional tensions, constrained shipping flows, and disputes with Iran over potential service fees. Traders price a low probability of US action by year-end due to these policy signals, legal concerns raised by the IMO, and preference for alternative security arrangements. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments through late 2026 could still alter the outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$983,340 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
6%
$983,340 Vol.
December 31
$115,036 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.The US government has maintained strong opposition to any transit fees or tolls on the Strait of Hormuz, an international waterway where UNCLOS principles support free passage without charges. In mid-July 2026, President Trump briefly floated a 20% cargo reimbursement for US security costs before reversing course in favor of Gulf investment deals, consistent with prior statements from Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance rejecting tolls. No US collection of payments has occurred amid ongoing regional tensions, constrained shipping flows, and disputes with Iran over potential service fees. Traders price a low probability of US action by year-end due to these policy signals, legal concerns raised by the IMO, and preference for alternative security arrangements. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments through late 2026 could still alter the outlook.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ET
Volume
$983,340End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.The US government has maintained strong opposition to any transit fees or tolls on the Strait of Hormuz, an international waterway where UNCLOS principles support free passage without charges. In mid-July 2026, President Trump briefly floated a 20% cargo reimbursement for US security costs before reversing course in favor of Gulf investment deals, consistent with prior statements from Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance rejecting tolls. No US collection of payments has occurred amid ongoing regional tensions, constrained shipping flows, and disputes with Iran over potential service fees. Traders price a low probability of US action by year-end due to these policy signals, legal concerns raised by the IMO, and preference for alternative security arrangements. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments through late 2026 could still alter the outlook.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$983,340End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US government has maintained strong opposition to any transit fees or tolls on the Strait of Hormuz, an international waterway where UNCLOS principles support free passage without charges. In mid-July 2026, President Trump briefly floated a 20% cargo reimbursement for US security costs before reversing course in favor of Gulf investment deals, consistent with prior statements from Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance rejecting tolls. No US collection of payments has occurred amid ongoing regional tensions, constrained shipping flows, and disputes with Iran over potential service fees. Traders price a low probability of US action by year-end due to these policy signals, legal concerns raised by the IMO, and preference for alternative security arrangements. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments through late 2026 could still alter the outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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