Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf, including Iranian attacks on commercial vessels and selective US naval enforcement of blockades, represent the primary driver of trader sentiment for countries dispatching warships through the Strait of Hormuz by year-end. US assets such as the USS Boxer and MH-60R helicopters have conducted surveillance and escort operations amid fluctuating daily oil transits of roughly 3–20 million barrels, supporting elevated Brent crude near $100 per barrel and record US diesel prices above $6.50 per gallon. These developments link directly to energy market dynamics, with drawn-down inventories, elevated shipping insurance costs, and risk premiums in futures contracts reflecting persistent supply uncertainty. Key upcoming catalysts include potential Hormuz administration talks involving GCC states, pipeline repair timelines, and any shifts in Combined Maritime Forces deployments that could influence naval transit probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhich countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?
$49,348 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
US
26%
Australia
20%
Italy
18%
UK
13%
Germany
9%
France
11%
Greece
11%
Netherlands
5%
$49,348 Vol.
US
$18,477 Vol.
26%
Australia
$0 Vol.
20%
Italy
$52 Vol.
18%
UK
$145 Vol.
13%
Germany
$18 Vol.
9%
France
$14,147 Vol.
11%
Greece
$52 Vol.
11%
Netherlands
$16,457 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf, including Iranian attacks on commercial vessels and selective US naval enforcement of blockades, represent the primary driver of trader sentiment for countries dispatching warships through the Strait of Hormuz by year-end. US assets such as the USS Boxer and MH-60R helicopters have conducted surveillance and escort operations amid fluctuating daily oil transits of roughly 3–20 million barrels, supporting elevated Brent crude near $100 per barrel and record US diesel prices above $6.50 per gallon. These developments link directly to energy market dynamics, with drawn-down inventories, elevated shipping insurance costs, and risk premiums in futures contracts reflecting persistent supply uncertainty. Key upcoming catalysts include potential Hormuz administration talks involving GCC states, pipeline repair timelines, and any shifts in Combined Maritime Forces deployments that could influence naval transit probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
Volume
$49,348End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf, including Iranian attacks on commercial vessels and selective US naval enforcement of blockades, represent the primary driver of trader sentiment for countries dispatching warships through the Strait of Hormuz by year-end. US assets such as the USS Boxer and MH-60R helicopters have conducted surveillance and escort operations amid fluctuating daily oil transits of roughly 3–20 million barrels, supporting elevated Brent crude near $100 per barrel and record US diesel prices above $6.50 per gallon. These developments link directly to energy market dynamics, with drawn-down inventories, elevated shipping insurance costs, and risk premiums in futures contracts reflecting persistent supply uncertainty. Key upcoming catalysts include potential Hormuz administration talks involving GCC states, pipeline repair timelines, and any shifts in Combined Maritime Forces deployments that could influence naval transit probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$49,348End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf, including Iranian attacks on commercial vessels and selective US naval enforcement of blockades, represent the primary driver of trader sentiment for countries dispatching warships through the Strait of Hormuz by year-end. US assets such as the USS Boxer and MH-60R helicopters have conducted surveillance and escort operations amid fluctuating daily oil transits of roughly 3–20 million barrels, supporting elevated Brent crude near $100 per barrel and record US diesel prices above $6.50 per gallon. These developments link directly to energy market dynamics, with drawn-down inventories, elevated shipping insurance costs, and risk premiums in futures contracts reflecting persistent supply uncertainty. Key upcoming catalysts include potential Hormuz administration talks involving GCC states, pipeline repair timelines, and any shifts in Combined Maritime Forces deployments that could influence naval transit probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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