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Geopolitics·Iran

Another Iranian diplomat expelled by...?

icon for Another Iranian diplomat expelled by...?
Geopolitics·Iran

Another Iranian diplomat expelled by...?

Oct 31

Oct 31

NEW
Aug 31, 2026
Polymarket

$442 Vol.

Polymarket

August 31

$442 Vol.

6%

September 30

$0 Vol.

50%

October 31

$0 Vol.

51%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent expulsions of Iranian diplomats by multiple countries, including the United States in late 2025 and early 2026 for national security reasons at the UN mission, Australia in August 2025 over alleged involvement in antisemitic incidents, Argentina in April 2026, and Lebanon in March 2026, reflect ongoing bilateral frictions tied to espionage concerns, proxy activities, and retaliatory measures. France announced plans in mid-August 2026 to expel two more diplomats following an incident involving its nationals in Tehran. These actions, often declared via persona non grata declarations or section 13 procedures, occur amid broader diplomatic strains and have prompted trader focus on whether additional expulsions will occur by late September. Scheduled diplomatic reviews, regional security developments, and responses to alleged Iranian activities could influence the pace of further measures.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.

An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$442
End Date
Oct 31, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 8:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent expulsions of Iranian diplomats by multiple countries, including the United States in late 2025 and early 2026 for national security reasons at the UN mission, Australia in August 2025 over alleged involvement in antisemitic incidents, Argentina in April 2026, and Lebanon in March 2026, reflect ongoing bilateral frictions tied to espionage concerns, proxy activities, and retaliatory measures. France announced plans in mid-August 2026 to expel two more diplomats following an incident involving its nationals in Tehran. These actions, often declared via persona non grata declarations or section 13 procedures, occur amid broader diplomatic strains and have prompted trader focus on whether additional expulsions will occur by late September. Scheduled diplomatic reviews, regional security developments, and responses to alleged Iranian activities could influence the pace of further measures.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.

An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$442
End Date
Oct 31, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 8:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Another Iranian diplomat expelled by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "October 31" at 51%, followed by "September 30" at 50%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 51¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Another Iranian diplomat expelled by...?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 19, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Another Iranian diplomat expelled by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Another Iranian diplomat expelled by...?" is "October 31" at 51%, meaning the market assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "September 30" at 50%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Another Iranian diplomat expelled by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.