Ongoing US-Iran tensions, including mid-August attacks on ADNOC tankers and renewed blockade signals, remain the dominant driver keeping daily Strait of Hormuz transits in the low single digits to low teens—well below pre-crisis baselines of roughly 100 vessels. This environment supports the 59.5% market-implied odds on 25-49 weekly crossings for the week of August 17, with traders pricing in persistent war-risk premiums, selective Iranian restrictions, and AIS-dark routing that continue to deter commercial volumes. The 37% probability on fewer than 25 transits reflects downside risks from further enforcement or escalation, while higher buckets stay sidelined absent verified de-escalation via Oman-mediated corridor talks. Elevated Brent crude near recent levels underscores the supply sensitivity, with any confirmed rebound in tanker flows serving as the key near-term catalyst for odds shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 17?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 17?
25-49 60%
<25 37%
50-74 3.9%
75-99 2.6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
<25
37%
25-49
60%
50-74
4%
75-99
3%
100+
<1%
25-49 60%
<25 37%
50-74 3.9%
75-99 2.6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
<25
$1,995 Vol.
37%
25-49
$1,237 Vol.
60%
50-74
$430 Vol.
4%
75-99
$755 Vol.
3%
100+
$353 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran tensions, including mid-August attacks on ADNOC tankers and renewed blockade signals, remain the dominant driver keeping daily Strait of Hormuz transits in the low single digits to low teens—well below pre-crisis baselines of roughly 100 vessels. This environment supports the 59.5% market-implied odds on 25-49 weekly crossings for the week of August 17, with traders pricing in persistent war-risk premiums, selective Iranian restrictions, and AIS-dark routing that continue to deter commercial volumes. The 37% probability on fewer than 25 transits reflects downside risks from further enforcement or escalation, while higher buckets stay sidelined absent verified de-escalation via Oman-mediated corridor talks. Elevated Brent crude near recent levels underscores the supply sensitivity, with any confirmed rebound in tanker flows serving as the key near-term catalyst for odds shifts.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
Volume
$4,771End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran tensions, including mid-August attacks on ADNOC tankers and renewed blockade signals, remain the dominant driver keeping daily Strait of Hormuz transits in the low single digits to low teens—well below pre-crisis baselines of roughly 100 vessels. This environment supports the 59.5% market-implied odds on 25-49 weekly crossings for the week of August 17, with traders pricing in persistent war-risk premiums, selective Iranian restrictions, and AIS-dark routing that continue to deter commercial volumes. The 37% probability on fewer than 25 transits reflects downside risks from further enforcement or escalation, while higher buckets stay sidelined absent verified de-escalation via Oman-mediated corridor talks. Elevated Brent crude near recent levels underscores the supply sensitivity, with any confirmed rebound in tanker flows serving as the key near-term catalyst for odds shifts.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$4,771End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing US-Iran tensions, including mid-August attacks on ADNOC tankers and renewed blockade signals, remain the dominant driver keeping daily Strait of Hormuz transits in the low single digits to low teens—well below pre-crisis baselines of roughly 100 vessels. This environment supports the 59.5% market-implied odds on 25-49 weekly crossings for the week of August 17, with traders pricing in persistent war-risk premiums, selective Iranian restrictions, and AIS-dark routing that continue to deter commercial volumes. The 37% probability on fewer than 25 transits reflects downside risks from further enforcement or escalation, while higher buckets stay sidelined absent verified de-escalation via Oman-mediated corridor talks. Elevated Brent crude near recent levels underscores the supply sensitivity, with any confirmed rebound in tanker flows serving as the key near-term catalyst for odds shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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