Strained Canada-U.S. relations amid escalating tariffs, trade negotiations collapse, and public petitions have fueled calls to declare Ambassador Pete Hoekstra persona non grata, yet Ottawa has shown no signs of formal expulsion proceedings. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government maintains regular high-level contacts with the Trump administration and prioritizes compartmentalized diplomacy over dramatic breaks, consistent with historical patterns where allies avoid recalling ambassadors except in extreme cases of interference. The 96.5% trader consensus on “No” reflects this restraint and the short timeline to December 31. Late developments such as a major diplomatic incident, intensified personal attacks, or parliamentary action advancing the petition could still shift probabilities before year-end.