In Mato Grosso do Sul’s 2026 Senate race for two seats, trader sentiment reflects a highly fragmented contest among more than a dozen registered candidates, with recent polls showing Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) edging ahead but technically tied or closely followed by Capitão Contar (PL), Nelsinho Trad (PSD), Vander Loubet (PT), Soraya Thronicke (PSB), and others. The crowded field, split partisan support, and absence of a dominant frontrunner have kept implied probabilities for first place tightly clustered. Voter preferences remain fluid this close to the October 4 election, as state-level alliances, campaign spending, and turnout in key regions could shift shares. Any surge in one contender’s visibility through endorsements or debates, or conversely a late scandal or withdrawal, could quickly widen gaps among the leaders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLuiz Lemes 44%
Roberto Oshiro 44%
Valderi Garcia 44%
Daniel Junior 44%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Luiz Lemes
44%
Roberto Oshiro
44%
Valderi Garcia
44%
Daniel Junior
44%
Reinaldo Azambuja
44%
Valter da Comagran
44%
Vander Loubet
44%
Soraya
44%
Capitão Contar
42%
Beto do Movimento
42%
Luiz Lemes 44%
Roberto Oshiro 44%
Valderi Garcia 44%
Daniel Junior 44%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Luiz Lemes
$0 Vol.
44%
Roberto Oshiro
$0 Vol.
44%
Valderi Garcia
$0 Vol.
44%
Daniel Junior
$0 Vol.
44%
Reinaldo Azambuja
$0 Vol.
44%
Valter da Comagran
$0 Vol.
44%
Vander Loubet
$0 Vol.
44%
Soraya
$0 Vol.
44%
Capitão Contar
$0 Vol.
42%
Beto do Movimento
$0 Vol.
42%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).In Mato Grosso do Sul’s 2026 Senate race for two seats, trader sentiment reflects a highly fragmented contest among more than a dozen registered candidates, with recent polls showing Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) edging ahead but technically tied or closely followed by Capitão Contar (PL), Nelsinho Trad (PSD), Vander Loubet (PT), Soraya Thronicke (PSB), and others. The crowded field, split partisan support, and absence of a dominant frontrunner have kept implied probabilities for first place tightly clustered. Voter preferences remain fluid this close to the October 4 election, as state-level alliances, campaign spending, and turnout in key regions could shift shares. Any surge in one contender’s visibility through endorsements or debates, or conversely a late scandal or withdrawal, could quickly widen gaps among the leaders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).In Mato Grosso do Sul’s 2026 Senate race for two seats, trader sentiment reflects a highly fragmented contest among more than a dozen registered candidates, with recent polls showing Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) edging ahead but technically tied or closely followed by Capitão Contar (PL), Nelsinho Trad (PSD), Vander Loubet (PT), Soraya Thronicke (PSB), and others. The crowded field, split partisan support, and absence of a dominant frontrunner have kept implied probabilities for first place tightly clustered. Voter preferences remain fluid this close to the October 4 election, as state-level alliances, campaign spending, and turnout in key regions could shift shares. Any surge in one contender’s visibility through endorsements or debates, or conversely a late scandal or withdrawal, could quickly widen gaps among the leaders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...In Mato Grosso do Sul’s 2026 Senate race for two seats, trader sentiment reflects a highly fragmented contest among more than a dozen registered candidates, with recent polls showing Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) edging ahead but technically tied or closely followed by Capitão Contar (PL), Nelsinho Trad (PSD), Vander Loubet (PT), Soraya Thronicke (PSB), and others. The crowded field, split partisan support, and absence of a dominant frontrunner have kept implied probabilities for first place tightly clustered. Voter preferences remain fluid this close to the October 4 election, as state-level alliances, campaign spending, and turnout in key regions could shift shares. Any surge in one contender’s visibility through endorsements or debates, or conversely a late scandal or withdrawal, could quickly widen gaps among the leaders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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