Recent polling in Mato Grosso do Sul shows Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) holding a clear lead for one Senate seat, leaving the second-place outcome contested among several candidates including Vander Loubet (PT), Capitão Contar (PL), Soraya Thronicke (PSB), and others. August surveys place Contar and Loubet in the mid-teens to low twenties, with fragmented support across parties and limited consolidation behind any single challenger. Cross-party endorsements and alliance signals have emerged in recent weeks without shifting the narrow gaps, while undecided voters and second-preference flows remain fluid ahead of the October vote. These factors sustain tight implied probabilities for the runner-up position, with separation likely hinging on late-campaign turnout, regional strongholds, or any final coalition adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCapitão Contar 40%
Vander Loubet 25%
Reinaldo Azambuja 25%
Roberto Oshiro 25%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Capitão Contar
40%
Vander Loubet
25%
Reinaldo Azambuja
25%
Roberto Oshiro
25%
Beto do Movimento
23%
Soraya
23%
Luiz Lemes
23%
Valderi Garcia
23%
Daniel Junior
22%
Valter da Comagran
21%
Capitão Contar 40%
Vander Loubet 25%
Reinaldo Azambuja 25%
Roberto Oshiro 25%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Capitão Contar
$94 Vol.
40%
Vander Loubet
$0 Vol.
25%
Reinaldo Azambuja
$0 Vol.
25%
Roberto Oshiro
$0 Vol.
25%
Beto do Movimento
$0 Vol.
23%
Soraya
$0 Vol.
23%
Luiz Lemes
$0 Vol.
23%
Valderi Garcia
$0 Vol.
23%
Daniel Junior
$0 Vol.
22%
Valter da Comagran
$0 Vol.
21%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling in Mato Grosso do Sul shows Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) holding a clear lead for one Senate seat, leaving the second-place outcome contested among several candidates including Vander Loubet (PT), Capitão Contar (PL), Soraya Thronicke (PSB), and others. August surveys place Contar and Loubet in the mid-teens to low twenties, with fragmented support across parties and limited consolidation behind any single challenger. Cross-party endorsements and alliance signals have emerged in recent weeks without shifting the narrow gaps, while undecided voters and second-preference flows remain fluid ahead of the October vote. These factors sustain tight implied probabilities for the runner-up position, with separation likely hinging on late-campaign turnout, regional strongholds, or any final coalition adjustments.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volume
$94End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling in Mato Grosso do Sul shows Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) holding a clear lead for one Senate seat, leaving the second-place outcome contested among several candidates including Vander Loubet (PT), Capitão Contar (PL), Soraya Thronicke (PSB), and others. August surveys place Contar and Loubet in the mid-teens to low twenties, with fragmented support across parties and limited consolidation behind any single challenger. Cross-party endorsements and alliance signals have emerged in recent weeks without shifting the narrow gaps, while undecided voters and second-preference flows remain fluid ahead of the October vote. These factors sustain tight implied probabilities for the runner-up position, with separation likely hinging on late-campaign turnout, regional strongholds, or any final coalition adjustments.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$94End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling in Mato Grosso do Sul shows Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) holding a clear lead for one Senate seat, leaving the second-place outcome contested among several candidates including Vander Loubet (PT), Capitão Contar (PL), Soraya Thronicke (PSB), and others. August surveys place Contar and Loubet in the mid-teens to low twenties, with fragmented support across parties and limited consolidation behind any single challenger. Cross-party endorsements and alliance signals have emerged in recent weeks without shifting the narrow gaps, while undecided voters and second-preference flows remain fluid ahead of the October vote. These factors sustain tight implied probabilities for the runner-up position, with separation likely hinging on late-campaign turnout, regional strongholds, or any final coalition adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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