Elon Musk’s established X posting rhythm, averaging 15–20 original posts daily across company updates, commentary, and replies, anchors trader expectations for the August 15–17 window and positions the 40–64 bracket as the frontrunner at 56.5% implied probability. Recent activity has centered on routine Tesla domestic-content highlights, Grok-related exchanges, and SpaceX launch commentary without major product announcements or breaking news that historically drive volume spikes above 25 posts per day. The near-even split with the sub-40 outcome at 43% reflects weekend moderation potential, while higher brackets remain negligible because sustained surges typically require extraordinary catalysts absent from current industry developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated40-64 56%
<40 43%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$332,215 Vol.
$332,215 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
<40
43%
40-64
56%
65-89
1%
90-114
<1%
115-139
<1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 56%
<40 43%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$332,215 Vol.
$332,215 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
<40
$80,462 Vol.
43%
40-64
$46,046 Vol.
56%
65-89
$57,368 Vol.
1%
90-114
$65,436 Vol.
<1%
115-139
$48,694 Vol.
<1%
140-164
$16,923 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$8,347 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$3,264 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$4,806 Vol.
<1%
240+
$4,113 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s established X posting rhythm, averaging 15–20 original posts daily across company updates, commentary, and replies, anchors trader expectations for the August 15–17 window and positions the 40–64 bracket as the frontrunner at 56.5% implied probability. Recent activity has centered on routine Tesla domestic-content highlights, Grok-related exchanges, and SpaceX launch commentary without major product announcements or breaking news that historically drive volume spikes above 25 posts per day. The near-even split with the sub-40 outcome at 43% reflects weekend moderation potential, while higher brackets remain negligible because sustained surges typically require extraordinary catalysts absent from current industry developments.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$332,215End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s established X posting rhythm, averaging 15–20 original posts daily across company updates, commentary, and replies, anchors trader expectations for the August 15–17 window and positions the 40–64 bracket as the frontrunner at 56.5% implied probability. Recent activity has centered on routine Tesla domestic-content highlights, Grok-related exchanges, and SpaceX launch commentary without major product announcements or breaking news that historically drive volume spikes above 25 posts per day. The near-even split with the sub-40 outcome at 43% reflects weekend moderation potential, while higher brackets remain negligible because sustained surges typically require extraordinary catalysts absent from current industry developments.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$332,215End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s established X posting rhythm, averaging 15–20 original posts daily across company updates, commentary, and replies, anchors trader expectations for the August 15–17 window and positions the 40–64 bracket as the frontrunner at 56.5% implied probability. Recent activity has centered on routine Tesla domestic-content highlights, Grok-related exchanges, and SpaceX launch commentary without major product announcements or breaking news that historically drive volume spikes above 25 posts per day. The near-even split with the sub-40 outcome at 43% reflects weekend moderation potential, while higher brackets remain negligible because sustained surges typically require extraordinary catalysts absent from current industry developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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