**Iran’s loss of its primary Syrian ally following Bashar al-Assad’s ouster in December 2024 has sharply reduced Tehran’s ability and incentive to conduct direct military strikes on Syrian territory.** The new Damascus government has publicly distanced itself from Iran, demanding respect for sovereignty, a review of past policies, and an end to proxy influence before any normalized ties. Iranian forces previously used Syrian territory as a corridor to Hezbollah and other proxies, but the post-Assad leadership has moved to secure borders with Iraq and Lebanon and disrupt those networks. In the broader 2026 US-Israel-Iran conflict, Iran has directed strikes at other regional targets and US-linked sites, with only isolated and disputed actions claimed in eastern Syria earlier in the year. Traders currently price the probability of a qualifying Iranian air or missile strike on Syria by October 31, 2026, at low single digits, reflecting the absence of both operational access and strategic motivation. Any escalation tied to the ongoing regional war or shifts in Syrian alignment could still alter that assessment before resolution.