Post-Assad Syria has prioritized sovereignty and new diplomatic ties with Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the United States while freezing formal relations with Tehran pending policy reviews. This realignment followed the 2024 regime change that dismantled Iran’s primary logistical corridor to Hezbollah and Lebanon. Iran’s July 2026 missile strike near al-Tanf targeted a claimed U.S. site rather than Syrian forces or government assets, and subsequent reporting shows no qualifying direct Iranian attacks on Syrian territory. Damascus has reinforced borders with Lebanon and Iraq, condemned Israeli operations, and avoided entanglement in the broader Iran-Israel-U.S. confrontation. Traders price low probabilities for an Iranian strike by near-term deadlines because Tehran lacks both infrastructure and strategic incentive to open a new front against the current Syrian authorities amid ongoing regional pressures.