Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.5% for US military draft authorization in 2026, reflecting the absence of any congressional bill or vote to amend the Military Selective Service Act for actual inductions, which requires separate emergency legislation and presidential approval beyond existing Selective Service maintenance. The FY 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed by President Trump in December 2025, merely mandates automatic registration of eligible men aged 18-26 starting December 18, 2026—streamlining the dormant registry without reinstating conscription, as clarified in April agency announcements amid recruitment shortfalls addressed via enlistment age expansions and incentives. Geopolitical tensions with Iran persist, but no momentum for draft activation has emerged, with historical all-volunteer force policy intact since 1973; late-breaking national emergency declarations could shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$250,122 Vol.
$250,122 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$250,122 Vol.
$250,122 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.5% for US military draft authorization in 2026, reflecting the absence of any congressional bill or vote to amend the Military Selective Service Act for actual inductions, which requires separate emergency legislation and presidential approval beyond existing Selective Service maintenance. The FY 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed by President Trump in December 2025, merely mandates automatic registration of eligible men aged 18-26 starting December 18, 2026—streamlining the dormant registry without reinstating conscription, as clarified in April agency announcements amid recruitment shortfalls addressed via enlistment age expansions and incentives. Geopolitical tensions with Iran persist, but no momentum for draft activation has emerged, with historical all-volunteer force policy intact since 1973; late-breaking national emergency declarations could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Volume
$250,122End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.5% for US military draft authorization in 2026, reflecting the absence of any congressional bill or vote to amend the Military Selective Service Act for actual inductions, which requires separate emergency legislation and presidential approval beyond existing Selective Service maintenance. The FY 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed by President Trump in December 2025, merely mandates automatic registration of eligible men aged 18-26 starting December 18, 2026—streamlining the dormant registry without reinstating conscription, as clarified in April agency announcements amid recruitment shortfalls addressed via enlistment age expansions and incentives. Geopolitical tensions with Iran persist, but no momentum for draft activation has emerged, with historical all-volunteer force policy intact since 1973; late-breaking national emergency declarations could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$250,122End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.5% for US military draft authorization in 2026, reflecting the absence of any congressional bill or vote to amend the Military Selective Service Act for actual inductions, which requires separate emergency legislation and presidential approval beyond existing Selective Service maintenance. The FY 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed by President Trump in December 2025, merely mandates automatic registration of eligible men aged 18-26 starting December 18, 2026—streamlining the dormant registry without reinstating conscription, as clarified in April agency announcements amid recruitment shortfalls addressed via enlistment age expansions and incentives. Geopolitical tensions with Iran persist, but no momentum for draft activation has emerged, with historical all-volunteer force policy intact since 1973; late-breaking national emergency declarations could shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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