Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.2% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, reflecting the absence of observable People's Liberation Army mobilization for amphibious assault, such as troop surges or sealift preparations across the Taiwan Strait, amid a tight six-week timeline. Recent U.S. intelligence assessments, including the ODNI's March 18 report stating China likely will not invade even in 2027, combined with ongoing economic pressures on Beijing like strained oil imports, underpin this near-certainty. Today's Trump-Xi summit in Beijing featured Xi's warnings of potential clashes over Taiwan but yielded no escalation signals, prioritizing diplomacy. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden blockades, major Taiwanese provocations, or rapid PLA surges, though structural deterrents including U.S. alliances and Taiwan's defenses remain formidable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$7,897,982 Vol.
$7,897,982 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$7,897,982 Vol.
$7,897,982 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.2% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, reflecting the absence of observable People's Liberation Army mobilization for amphibious assault, such as troop surges or sealift preparations across the Taiwan Strait, amid a tight six-week timeline. Recent U.S. intelligence assessments, including the ODNI's March 18 report stating China likely will not invade even in 2027, combined with ongoing economic pressures on Beijing like strained oil imports, underpin this near-certainty. Today's Trump-Xi summit in Beijing featured Xi's warnings of potential clashes over Taiwan but yielded no escalation signals, prioritizing diplomacy. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden blockades, major Taiwanese provocations, or rapid PLA surges, though structural deterrents including U.S. alliances and Taiwan's defenses remain formidable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ET
Volume
$7,897,982End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.2% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, reflecting the absence of observable People's Liberation Army mobilization for amphibious assault, such as troop surges or sealift preparations across the Taiwan Strait, amid a tight six-week timeline. Recent U.S. intelligence assessments, including the ODNI's March 18 report stating China likely will not invade even in 2027, combined with ongoing economic pressures on Beijing like strained oil imports, underpin this near-certainty. Today's Trump-Xi summit in Beijing featured Xi's warnings of potential clashes over Taiwan but yielded no escalation signals, prioritizing diplomacy. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden blockades, major Taiwanese provocations, or rapid PLA surges, though structural deterrents including U.S. alliances and Taiwan's defenses remain formidable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$7,897,982End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.2% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, reflecting the absence of observable People's Liberation Army mobilization for amphibious assault, such as troop surges or sealift preparations across the Taiwan Strait, amid a tight six-week timeline. Recent U.S. intelligence assessments, including the ODNI's March 18 report stating China likely will not invade even in 2027, combined with ongoing economic pressures on Beijing like strained oil imports, underpin this near-certainty. Today's Trump-Xi summit in Beijing featured Xi's warnings of potential clashes over Taiwan but yielded no escalation signals, prioritizing diplomacy. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden blockades, major Taiwanese provocations, or rapid PLA surges, though structural deterrents including U.S. alliances and Taiwan's defenses remain formidable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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