Traders assign a 96% probability to no US-China tariff agreement by June 30 because the short remaining timeline offers little room for finalizing a formal deal amid ongoing implementation of the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit framework. That framework established a Board of Trade to negotiate tariff rollbacks and purchase commitments on roughly $30 billion in non-sensitive goods, while existing reciprocal tariff suspensions extend through November 2026. Recent USTR actions, including a proposed Section 301 tariff investigation with public comments due in early July, further signal that bilateral talks remain in a managed, incremental phase rather than accelerating toward a comprehensive June deadline. A last-minute breakthrough in Board of Trade discussions or an unscheduled diplomatic announcement could still shift the outcome before month-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$28,786 Vol.
$28,786 Vol.
30 juin 2026
$28,786 Vol.
$28,786 Vol.
30 juin 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Traders assign a 96% probability to no US-China tariff agreement by June 30 because the short remaining timeline offers little room for finalizing a formal deal amid ongoing implementation of the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit framework. That framework established a Board of Trade to negotiate tariff rollbacks and purchase commitments on roughly $30 billion in non-sensitive goods, while existing reciprocal tariff suspensions extend through November 2026. Recent USTR actions, including a proposed Section 301 tariff investigation with public comments due in early July, further signal that bilateral talks remain in a managed, incremental phase rather than accelerating toward a comprehensive June deadline. A last-minute breakthrough in Board of Trade discussions or an unscheduled diplomatic announcement could still shift the outcome before month-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Marché ouvert : May 26, 2026, 6:39 PM ET
Volume
$28,786Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
May 26, 2026, 6:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Traders assign a 96% probability to no US-China tariff agreement by June 30 because the short remaining timeline offers little room for finalizing a formal deal amid ongoing implementation of the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit framework. That framework established a Board of Trade to negotiate tariff rollbacks and purchase commitments on roughly $30 billion in non-sensitive goods, while existing reciprocal tariff suspensions extend through November 2026. Recent USTR actions, including a proposed Section 301 tariff investigation with public comments due in early July, further signal that bilateral talks remain in a managed, incremental phase rather than accelerating toward a comprehensive June deadline. A last-minute breakthrough in Board of Trade discussions or an unscheduled diplomatic announcement could still shift the outcome before month-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$28,808Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
May 26, 2026, 6:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 96% probability to no US-China tariff agreement by June 30 because the short remaining timeline offers little room for finalizing a formal deal amid ongoing implementation of the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit framework. That framework established a Board of Trade to negotiate tariff rollbacks and purchase commitments on roughly $30 billion in non-sensitive goods, while existing reciprocal tariff suspensions extend through November 2026. Recent USTR actions, including a proposed Section 301 tariff investigation with public comments due in early July, further signal that bilateral talks remain in a managed, incremental phase rather than accelerating toward a comprehensive June deadline. A last-minute breakthrough in Board of Trade discussions or an unscheduled diplomatic announcement could still shift the outcome before month-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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