Polymarket traders' tight clustering of implied probabilities around 30-45% for Argentina's 2026 annual inflation reflects uncertainty in the disinflation trajectory under President Milei's fiscal austerity, with April INDEC CPI at 2.6% month-on-month—the first sub-3% print in 11 months—easing year-over-year inflation to 32.4% from March's 32.6% and bolstering the 30-34.9% outcome at 31.7%. However, analysts' central bank survey last week raised the median year-end forecast to 30.5% from prior estimates, amid earlier monthly accelerations to 3.4% in March, fueling bets on 40-44.9% (33.7%) if regulated prices or currency pressures persist. Key swing factors include May CPI (due soon) and sustained monetary tightening versus growth trade-offs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated35–39.9% 29.6%
30.0-34.9% 23.5%
40-44.9% 20.8%
25-29.9% 20%
NEW
NEW
Jan 10, 2027
<20%
7%
20-24.9%
17%
25-29.9%
20%
30.0-34.9%
30%
35–39.9%
30%
40-44.9%
21%
45%+
9%
35–39.9% 29.6%
30.0-34.9% 23.5%
40-44.9% 20.8%
25-29.9% 20%
NEW
NEW
Jan 10, 2027
<20%
$2,516 Vol.
7%
20-24.9%
$1,429 Vol.
17%
25-29.9%
$1,626 Vol.
20%
30.0-34.9%
$976 Vol.
30%
35–39.9%
$1,094 Vol.
30%
40-44.9%
$928 Vol.
21%
45%+
$1,156 Vol.
9%
This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders' tight clustering of implied probabilities around 30-45% for Argentina's 2026 annual inflation reflects uncertainty in the disinflation trajectory under President Milei's fiscal austerity, with April INDEC CPI at 2.6% month-on-month—the first sub-3% print in 11 months—easing year-over-year inflation to 32.4% from March's 32.6% and bolstering the 30-34.9% outcome at 31.7%. However, analysts' central bank survey last week raised the median year-end forecast to 30.5% from prior estimates, amid earlier monthly accelerations to 3.4% in March, fueling bets on 40-44.9% (33.7%) if regulated prices or currency pressures persist. Key swing factors include May CPI (due soon) and sustained monetary tightening versus growth trade-offs.
This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 7:15 AM ET
Volume
$9,725End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders' tight clustering of implied probabilities around 30-45% for Argentina's 2026 annual inflation reflects uncertainty in the disinflation trajectory under President Milei's fiscal austerity, with April INDEC CPI at 2.6% month-on-month—the first sub-3% print in 11 months—easing year-over-year inflation to 32.4% from March's 32.6% and bolstering the 30-34.9% outcome at 31.7%. However, analysts' central bank survey last week raised the median year-end forecast to 30.5% from prior estimates, amid earlier monthly accelerations to 3.4% in March, fueling bets on 40-44.9% (33.7%) if regulated prices or currency pressures persist. Key swing factors include May CPI (due soon) and sustained monetary tightening versus growth trade-offs.
This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$9,725End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' tight clustering of implied probabilities around 30-45% for Argentina's 2026 annual inflation reflects uncertainty in the disinflation trajectory under President Milei's fiscal austerity, with April INDEC CPI at 2.6% month-on-month—the first sub-3% print in 11 months—easing year-over-year inflation to 32.4% from March's 32.6% and bolstering the 30-34.9% outcome at 31.7%. However, analysts' central bank survey last week raised the median year-end forecast to 30.5% from prior estimates, amid earlier monthly accelerations to 3.4% in March, fueling bets on 40-44.9% (33.7%) if regulated prices or currency pressures persist. Key swing factors include May CPI (due soon) and sustained monetary tightening versus growth trade-offs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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