Recent CPI releases showing Argentina’s year-over-year inflation near 33.5–33.8% through mid-2026, combined with monthly rates of 1.9–2.1%, have anchored the 30.0–34.9% bracket at a slim 51.3% market-implied probability versus 44.0% for 25–29.9%. President Milei’s fiscal surplus and exchange-rate band policy continue to support gradual disinflation, aligning with analyst medians of 29–31% from Reuters, BBVA, and the OECD. However, sticky relative-price adjustments and potential growth-recovery pressures introduce upside risks that keep the two leading outcomes closely contested. Remaining July–December prints, reserve accumulation, and any monetary-policy shifts remain the key swing factors through year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated30.0-34.9% 51.3%
25-29.9% 44%
45%+ 1.9%
20-24.9% 1.7%
$41,125 Vol.
$41,125 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<20%
2%
20-24.9%
2%
25-29.9%
44%
30.0-34.9%
51%
35–39.9%
<1%
40-44.9%
1%
45%+
2%
30.0-34.9% 51.3%
25-29.9% 44%
45%+ 1.9%
20-24.9% 1.7%
$41,125 Vol.
$41,125 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<20%
$4,648 Vol.
2%
20-24.9%
$3,216 Vol.
2%
25-29.9%
$12,331 Vol.
44%
30.0-34.9%
$10,612 Vol.
51%
35–39.9%
$3,367 Vol.
<1%
40-44.9%
$3,511 Vol.
1%
45%+
$3,439 Vol.
2%
This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent CPI releases showing Argentina’s year-over-year inflation near 33.5–33.8% through mid-2026, combined with monthly rates of 1.9–2.1%, have anchored the 30.0–34.9% bracket at a slim 51.3% market-implied probability versus 44.0% for 25–29.9%. President Milei’s fiscal surplus and exchange-rate band policy continue to support gradual disinflation, aligning with analyst medians of 29–31% from Reuters, BBVA, and the OECD. However, sticky relative-price adjustments and potential growth-recovery pressures introduce upside risks that keep the two leading outcomes closely contested. Remaining July–December prints, reserve accumulation, and any monetary-policy shifts remain the key swing factors through year-end resolution.
This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 7:15 AM ET
Volume
$41,125End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent CPI releases showing Argentina’s year-over-year inflation near 33.5–33.8% through mid-2026, combined with monthly rates of 1.9–2.1%, have anchored the 30.0–34.9% bracket at a slim 51.3% market-implied probability versus 44.0% for 25–29.9%. President Milei’s fiscal surplus and exchange-rate band policy continue to support gradual disinflation, aligning with analyst medians of 29–31% from Reuters, BBVA, and the OECD. However, sticky relative-price adjustments and potential growth-recovery pressures introduce upside risks that keep the two leading outcomes closely contested. Remaining July–December prints, reserve accumulation, and any monetary-policy shifts remain the key swing factors through year-end resolution.
This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$41,125End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent CPI releases showing Argentina’s year-over-year inflation near 33.5–33.8% through mid-2026, combined with monthly rates of 1.9–2.1%, have anchored the 30.0–34.9% bracket at a slim 51.3% market-implied probability versus 44.0% for 25–29.9%. President Milei’s fiscal surplus and exchange-rate band policy continue to support gradual disinflation, aligning with analyst medians of 29–31% from Reuters, BBVA, and the OECD. However, sticky relative-price adjustments and potential growth-recovery pressures introduce upside risks that keep the two leading outcomes closely contested. Remaining July–December prints, reserve accumulation, and any monetary-policy shifts remain the key swing factors through year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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