South Korea's September 2026 CPI rose 2.9% year-over-year, easing from 3.1% in August but remaining above the Bank of Korea's 2% target, with core inflation at 2.8%. Elevated energy prices from Middle East geopolitical tensions, rising industrial goods costs, and broadening core pressures in services and durables have kept market-implied odds for a 3.0%+ annual average at 50.8%. The Bank of Korea expects October readings near 3%, citing persistent cost pass-through and demand factors amid solid growth. Recent AMRO revisions project 2.7% for the full year, yet traders appear to assign higher weight to upside risks from oil volatility and limited near-term disinflation, with the 2.7–2.9% band at 19.8% reflecting a more moderate base case. Key upcoming catalysts include October CPI data and Bank of Korea communications on the policy path.