US sanctions pressure and Cuba’s deepening economic crisis remain the dominant forces shaping expectations for any formal bilateral economic agreement. The Trump administration has expanded secondary sanctions and an effective oil blockade since January 2026, while demanding privatization steps, compensation for expropriated assets, and political concessions. Cuba responded in June with a package of 176 market-liberalization measures to expand private enterprise and foreign investment, yet Washington has continued designating state entities and rejected the reforms as insufficient. Earlier back-channel talks on energy supplies and investment collapsed amid domestic political constraints. Private-sector cargo flows have risen, but these incremental channels fall short of the comprehensive deal traders would need to see resolved.