Polymarket traders assign a 74.5% implied probability to a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's June 16-17 Copom meeting, driven by the committee's April 29 unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.50%—the second consecutive reduction—despite inflation expectations rising above the 3% target amid fiscal uncertainties and oil shocks. Softer-than-expected April IPCA inflation at 0.67% month-over-month has bolstered trader consensus for continued easing, aligning with Focus survey projections of a 13% year-end Selic and resilient GDP growth near 2%. A no-change outcome at 24.3% reflects Copom's hawkish minutes highlighting second-round inflation risks, while hikes at 0.3% face significant barriers absent renewed inflationary surges. Key watch: May inflation data and activity indicators ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBank of Brazil Decision in June?
Bank of Brazil Decision in June?
Decrease 74%
No Change 24.1%
Increase <1%
$120,981 Vol.
$120,981 Vol.
Jun 16, 2026
Increase
<1%
No Change
24%
Decrease
74%
Decrease 74%
No Change 24.1%
Increase <1%
$120,981 Vol.
$120,981 Vol.
Jun 16, 2026
Increase
$34,479 Vol.
<1%
No Change
$31,317 Vol.
24%
Decrease
$55,226 Vol.
74%
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 74.5% implied probability to a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's June 16-17 Copom meeting, driven by the committee's April 29 unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.50%—the second consecutive reduction—despite inflation expectations rising above the 3% target amid fiscal uncertainties and oil shocks. Softer-than-expected April IPCA inflation at 0.67% month-over-month has bolstered trader consensus for continued easing, aligning with Focus survey projections of a 13% year-end Selic and resilient GDP growth near 2%. A no-change outcome at 24.3% reflects Copom's hawkish minutes highlighting second-round inflation risks, while hikes at 0.3% face significant barriers absent renewed inflationary surges. Key watch: May inflation data and activity indicators ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volume
$120,981End Date
Jun 16, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 74.5% implied probability to a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's June 16-17 Copom meeting, driven by the committee's April 29 unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.50%—the second consecutive reduction—despite inflation expectations rising above the 3% target amid fiscal uncertainties and oil shocks. Softer-than-expected April IPCA inflation at 0.67% month-over-month has bolstered trader consensus for continued easing, aligning with Focus survey projections of a 13% year-end Selic and resilient GDP growth near 2%. A no-change outcome at 24.3% reflects Copom's hawkish minutes highlighting second-round inflation risks, while hikes at 0.3% face significant barriers absent renewed inflationary surges. Key watch: May inflation data and activity indicators ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$120,981End Date
Jun 16, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders assign a 74.5% implied probability to a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's June 16-17 Copom meeting, driven by the committee's April 29 unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.50%—the second consecutive reduction—despite inflation expectations rising above the 3% target amid fiscal uncertainties and oil shocks. Softer-than-expected April IPCA inflation at 0.67% month-over-month has bolstered trader consensus for continued easing, aligning with Focus survey projections of a 13% year-end Selic and resilient GDP growth near 2%. A no-change outcome at 24.3% reflects Copom's hawkish minutes highlighting second-round inflation risks, while hikes at 0.3% face significant barriers absent renewed inflationary surges. Key watch: May inflation data and activity indicators ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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