Recent CDC provisional data for 2025 showed the U.S. general fertility rate sliding another 1% to a record low of 53.1 births per 1,000 women ages 15-44, extending a decline that began in 2007 and accelerated among younger women. This long-running trend, fueled by delayed childbearing, lower teen birth rates, and shifting cultural attitudes toward family formation, underpins trader sentiment favoring “No” at 53% for a Q1 2026 uptick. With the market closely balanced, attention now turns to the next CDC quarterly release, which could reveal whether early-2026 numbers break the pattern or simply reflect seasonal variation. Any surprise rebound in births or revised methodology would quickly shift momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS fertility rate up in Q1 2026?
US fertility rate up in Q1 2026?
$1,660 Vol.
$1,660 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$1,660 Vol.
$1,660 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.Recent CDC provisional data for 2025 showed the U.S. general fertility rate sliding another 1% to a record low of 53.1 births per 1,000 women ages 15-44, extending a decline that began in 2007 and accelerated among younger women. This long-running trend, fueled by delayed childbearing, lower teen birth rates, and shifting cultural attitudes toward family formation, underpins trader sentiment favoring “No” at 53% for a Q1 2026 uptick. With the market closely balanced, attention now turns to the next CDC quarterly release, which could reveal whether early-2026 numbers break the pattern or simply reflect seasonal variation. Any surprise rebound in births or revised methodology would quickly shift momentum.
The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 4:53 PM ET
Volume
$1,660End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 4:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.Recent CDC provisional data for 2025 showed the U.S. general fertility rate sliding another 1% to a record low of 53.1 births per 1,000 women ages 15-44, extending a decline that began in 2007 and accelerated among younger women. This long-running trend, fueled by delayed childbearing, lower teen birth rates, and shifting cultural attitudes toward family formation, underpins trader sentiment favoring “No” at 53% for a Q1 2026 uptick. With the market closely balanced, attention now turns to the next CDC quarterly release, which could reveal whether early-2026 numbers break the pattern or simply reflect seasonal variation. Any surprise rebound in births or revised methodology would quickly shift momentum.
The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
Volume
$1,660End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 4:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent CDC provisional data for 2025 showed the U.S. general fertility rate sliding another 1% to a record low of 53.1 births per 1,000 women ages 15-44, extending a decline that began in 2007 and accelerated among younger women. This long-running trend, fueled by delayed childbearing, lower teen birth rates, and shifting cultural attitudes toward family formation, underpins trader sentiment favoring “No” at 53% for a Q1 2026 uptick. With the market closely balanced, attention now turns to the next CDC quarterly release, which could reveal whether early-2026 numbers break the pattern or simply reflect seasonal variation. Any surprise rebound in births or revised methodology would quickly shift momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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