Traders assign the highest implied probability of 52.3% to Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth landing in the 1.9%–2.2% range, reflecting resilient high-frequency indicators such as February’s 0.6% month-on-month rise in the IBC-Br economic activity index, record March retail sales, and April manufacturing and services PMIs expanding above 52 amid export strength. These gains counterbalance the Banco Central do Brasil’s sustained Selic rate near 14.5%, the highest level in nearly two decades, which continues to weigh on credit and domestic demand. Full-year consensus forecasts from the Central Bank Focus and IMF remain anchored around 1.8%–1.9%, supporting a moderate Q1 print aided by base effects, while global uncertainties including Middle East tensions introduce downside risks ahead of the IBGE release scheduled for late May.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBrazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?
Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?
1.9%–2.2% 53.4%
1.5%–1.8% 12%
2.3%–2.6% 8.8%
≥2.7% 4.7%
$20,707 Vol.
$20,707 Vol.
May 29, 2026
<0.7%
8%
0.7%–1.0%
2%
1.1%–1.4%
4%
1.5%–1.8%
27%
1.9%–2.2%
52%
2.3%–2.6%
29%
≥2.7%
10%
1.9%–2.2% 53.4%
1.5%–1.8% 12%
2.3%–2.6% 8.8%
≥2.7% 4.7%
$20,707 Vol.
$20,707 Vol.
May 29, 2026
<0.7%
$14,389 Vol.
8%
0.7%–1.0%
$660 Vol.
2%
1.1%–1.4%
$506 Vol.
4%
1.5%–1.8%
$1,040 Vol.
27%
1.9%–2.2%
$1,631 Vol.
52%
2.3%–2.6%
$684 Vol.
29%
≥2.7%
$1,827 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTraders assign the highest implied probability of 52.3% to Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth landing in the 1.9%–2.2% range, reflecting resilient high-frequency indicators such as February’s 0.6% month-on-month rise in the IBC-Br economic activity index, record March retail sales, and April manufacturing and services PMIs expanding above 52 amid export strength. These gains counterbalance the Banco Central do Brasil’s sustained Selic rate near 14.5%, the highest level in nearly two decades, which continues to weigh on credit and domestic demand. Full-year consensus forecasts from the Central Bank Focus and IMF remain anchored around 1.8%–1.9%, supporting a moderate Q1 print aided by base effects, while global uncertainties including Middle East tensions introduce downside risks ahead of the IBGE release scheduled for late May.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Market Opened: Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ET
Volume
$20,707End Date
May 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTraders assign the highest implied probability of 52.3% to Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth landing in the 1.9%–2.2% range, reflecting resilient high-frequency indicators such as February’s 0.6% month-on-month rise in the IBC-Br economic activity index, record March retail sales, and April manufacturing and services PMIs expanding above 52 amid export strength. These gains counterbalance the Banco Central do Brasil’s sustained Selic rate near 14.5%, the highest level in nearly two decades, which continues to weigh on credit and domestic demand. Full-year consensus forecasts from the Central Bank Focus and IMF remain anchored around 1.8%–1.9%, supporting a moderate Q1 print aided by base effects, while global uncertainties including Middle East tensions introduce downside risks ahead of the IBGE release scheduled for late May.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$20,707End Date
May 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest implied probability of 52.3% to Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth landing in the 1.9%–2.2% range, reflecting resilient high-frequency indicators such as February’s 0.6% month-on-month rise in the IBC-Br economic activity index, record March retail sales, and April manufacturing and services PMIs expanding above 52 amid export strength. These gains counterbalance the Banco Central do Brasil’s sustained Selic rate near 14.5%, the highest level in nearly two decades, which continues to weigh on credit and domestic demand. Full-year consensus forecasts from the Central Bank Focus and IMF remain anchored around 1.8%–1.9%, supporting a moderate Q1 print aided by base effects, while global uncertainties including Middle East tensions introduce downside risks ahead of the IBGE release scheduled for late May.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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