Private forecasters project Japan’s Q1 2026 real GDP at 1.5–1.8% quarter-on-quarter annualized, driven by resilient personal consumption and recovering exports, which underpins the tight contest between the 0.9–1.1% and 0.6–0.8% year-over-year bands at roughly 33% and 32% implied probability. Fiscal measures including gasoline tax cuts and utility subsidies lifted retail sales and supported a 0.2% consumption gain, while net external demand is expected to contribute positively as the drag from earlier U.S. tariffs fades and semiconductor shipments hold firm. Industrial production and Tankan surveys show mixed signals, however, with rising oil prices from Middle East tensions already curbing margins and foreshadowing potential Q2 pressure. The Bank of Japan’s steady policy rate has kept financial conditions accommodative without triggering yen appreciation that might blunt export momentum. With the Cabinet Office’s first preliminary release due May 19, traders are pricing the narrow range of outcomes around these core domestic and trade dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.3–0.5% 19.1%
0.9–1.1% 15.0%
-0.3– -0.1% 4.3%
1.2%+ 2.9%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
≤-0.4%
1%
-0.3– -0.1%
4%
0.0–0.2%
2%
0.3–0.5%
19%
0.6–0.8%
32%
0.9–1.1%
31%
1.2%+
3%
0.3–0.5% 19.1%
0.9–1.1% 15.0%
-0.3– -0.1% 4.3%
1.2%+ 2.9%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
≤-0.4%
$1,057 Vol.
1%
-0.3– -0.1%
$650 Vol.
4%
0.0–0.2%
$994 Vol.
2%
0.3–0.5%
$786 Vol.
19%
0.6–0.8%
$447 Vol.
32%
0.9–1.1%
$683 Vol.
31%
1.2%+
$2,699 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlPrivate forecasters project Japan’s Q1 2026 real GDP at 1.5–1.8% quarter-on-quarter annualized, driven by resilient personal consumption and recovering exports, which underpins the tight contest between the 0.9–1.1% and 0.6–0.8% year-over-year bands at roughly 33% and 32% implied probability. Fiscal measures including gasoline tax cuts and utility subsidies lifted retail sales and supported a 0.2% consumption gain, while net external demand is expected to contribute positively as the drag from earlier U.S. tariffs fades and semiconductor shipments hold firm. Industrial production and Tankan surveys show mixed signals, however, with rising oil prices from Middle East tensions already curbing margins and foreshadowing potential Q2 pressure. The Bank of Japan’s steady policy rate has kept financial conditions accommodative without triggering yen appreciation that might blunt export momentum. With the Cabinet Office’s first preliminary release due May 19, traders are pricing the narrow range of outcomes around these core domestic and trade dynamics.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Market Opened: Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Volume
$7,317End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlPrivate forecasters project Japan’s Q1 2026 real GDP at 1.5–1.8% quarter-on-quarter annualized, driven by resilient personal consumption and recovering exports, which underpins the tight contest between the 0.9–1.1% and 0.6–0.8% year-over-year bands at roughly 33% and 32% implied probability. Fiscal measures including gasoline tax cuts and utility subsidies lifted retail sales and supported a 0.2% consumption gain, while net external demand is expected to contribute positively as the drag from earlier U.S. tariffs fades and semiconductor shipments hold firm. Industrial production and Tankan surveys show mixed signals, however, with rising oil prices from Middle East tensions already curbing margins and foreshadowing potential Q2 pressure. The Bank of Japan’s steady policy rate has kept financial conditions accommodative without triggering yen appreciation that might blunt export momentum. With the Cabinet Office’s first preliminary release due May 19, traders are pricing the narrow range of outcomes around these core domestic and trade dynamics.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volume
$7,317End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Private forecasters project Japan’s Q1 2026 real GDP at 1.5–1.8% quarter-on-quarter annualized, driven by resilient personal consumption and recovering exports, which underpins the tight contest between the 0.9–1.1% and 0.6–0.8% year-over-year bands at roughly 33% and 32% implied probability. Fiscal measures including gasoline tax cuts and utility subsidies lifted retail sales and supported a 0.2% consumption gain, while net external demand is expected to contribute positively as the drag from earlier U.S. tariffs fades and semiconductor shipments hold firm. Industrial production and Tankan surveys show mixed signals, however, with rising oil prices from Middle East tensions already curbing margins and foreshadowing potential Q2 pressure. The Bank of Japan’s steady policy rate has kept financial conditions accommodative without triggering yen appreciation that might blunt export momentum. With the Cabinet Office’s first preliminary release due May 19, traders are pricing the narrow range of outcomes around these core domestic and trade dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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