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Economy·Argentina

Argentina Monthly Inflation - April

icon for Argentina Monthly Inflation - April
Economy·Argentina

Argentina Monthly Inflation - April

May 14

May 14

2.5–2.7% 53%

2.2–2.4% 39%

2.8–3.0% 9%

3.1–3.3% 4.3%

Polymarket

$11,833 Vol.

2.5–2.7% 53%

2.2–2.4% 39%

2.8–3.0% 9%

3.1–3.3% 4.3%

Polymarket

$11,833 Vol.

≤2.1%

$1,600 Vol.

1%

2.2–2.4%

$1,456 Vol.

24%

2.5–2.7%

$963 Vol.

67%

2.8–3.0%

$2,011 Vol.

9%

3.1–3.3%

$1,846 Vol.

4%

3.4–3.6%

$1,220 Vol.

<1%

3.7–3.9%

$1,756 Vol.

<1%

4.0%+

$980 Vol.

1%

This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina. This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in April 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report. The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on May 14, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al Consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under “Variación % mensual Total nacional”. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 60% implied probability for Argentina's April 2026 monthly CPI in the 2.5–2.7% range, closely tracking the Central Bank's latest REM survey median forecast of 2.6% (top-10 analysts at 2.7%), released May 7. This positioning reflects optimism for disinflation resuming after March's unexpected 3.4% print—the highest in a year—driven by regulated price adjustments and seasonal factors, amid Milei's fiscal surplus and monetary contraction shrinking money supply at double-digit rates. Lower buckets like 2.2–2.4% (23%) and 2.8–3.0% (18%) capture uncertainty around food prices and utility pass-throughs, with INDEC's official release due mid-May as the key catalyst. Annual inflation holds at 32.6% y/y, down sharply from prior peaks.

This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.

This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in April 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.

The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on May 14, 2026.

Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al Consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under “Variación % mensual Total nacional”.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$11,833
End Date
May 14, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 20, 2026, 4:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina. This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in April 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report. The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on May 14, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al Consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under “Variación % mensual Total nacional”. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina. This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in April 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report. The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on May 14, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al Consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under “Variación % mensual Total nacional”. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 60% implied probability for Argentina's April 2026 monthly CPI in the 2.5–2.7% range, closely tracking the Central Bank's latest REM survey median forecast of 2.6% (top-10 analysts at 2.7%), released May 7. This positioning reflects optimism for disinflation resuming after March's unexpected 3.4% print—the highest in a year—driven by regulated price adjustments and seasonal factors, amid Milei's fiscal surplus and monetary contraction shrinking money supply at double-digit rates. Lower buckets like 2.2–2.4% (23%) and 2.8–3.0% (18%) capture uncertainty around food prices and utility pass-throughs, with INDEC's official release due mid-May as the key catalyst. Annual inflation holds at 32.6% y/y, down sharply from prior peaks.

This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.

This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in April 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.

The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on May 14, 2026.

Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al Consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under “Variación % mensual Total nacional”.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$11,833
End Date
May 14, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 20, 2026, 4:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina. This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in April 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report. The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on May 14, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al Consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under “Variación % mensual Total nacional”. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Argentina Monthly Inflation - April" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2.5–2.7%" at 67%, followed by "2.2–2.4%" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 67¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Argentina Monthly Inflation - April" has generated $11.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Argentina Monthly Inflation - April," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Argentina Monthly Inflation - April" is "2.5–2.7%" at 67%, meaning the market assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "2.2–2.4%" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Argentina Monthly Inflation - April" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.