Recent developments center on Nigel Farage’s July 2026 resignation as Clacton MP to force a by-election he intends to contest, framed as a “people versus establishment” vote amid scrutiny over unregistered donations and finances. Major parties including Labour, Conservatives, and Liberal Democrats have declined to field candidates, leaving Reform UK’s incumbent facing minimal organized opposition in the Essex constituency he captured with 46.2% in 2024. Public polling shows broad opposition to the by-election itself, yet Reform voters back the move. These factors support trader consensus on Farage securing over 50% of the vote, while closely matched prices across the 40-70% buckets reflect uncertainty over turnout, protest votes, and any residual impact from financial questions in an otherwise low-contest race.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFarage 70–80% 32.8%
Farage 80%+ 30%
Farage 60–70% 24%
Farage 50–60% 11%
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2027
Farage <40%
3%
Farage 40–50%
4%
Farage 50–60%
11%
Farage 60–70%
24%
Farage 70–80%
33%
Farage 80%+
30%
Farage 70–80% 32.8%
Farage 80%+ 30%
Farage 60–70% 24%
Farage 50–60% 11%
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2027
Farage <40%
$412 Vol.
3%
Farage 40–50%
$544 Vol.
4%
Farage 50–60%
$690 Vol.
11%
Farage 60–70%
$600 Vol.
24%
Farage 70–80%
$1,509 Vol.
33%
Farage 80%+
$2,159 Vol.
30%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).Recent developments center on Nigel Farage’s July 2026 resignation as Clacton MP to force a by-election he intends to contest, framed as a “people versus establishment” vote amid scrutiny over unregistered donations and finances. Major parties including Labour, Conservatives, and Liberal Democrats have declined to field candidates, leaving Reform UK’s incumbent facing minimal organized opposition in the Essex constituency he captured with 46.2% in 2024. Public polling shows broad opposition to the by-election itself, yet Reform voters back the move. These factors support trader consensus on Farage securing over 50% of the vote, while closely matched prices across the 40-70% buckets reflect uncertainty over turnout, protest votes, and any residual impact from financial questions in an otherwise low-contest race.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Market Opened: Jul 8, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
Volume
$5,914End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).Recent developments center on Nigel Farage’s July 2026 resignation as Clacton MP to force a by-election he intends to contest, framed as a “people versus establishment” vote amid scrutiny over unregistered donations and finances. Major parties including Labour, Conservatives, and Liberal Democrats have declined to field candidates, leaving Reform UK’s incumbent facing minimal organized opposition in the Essex constituency he captured with 46.2% in 2024. Public polling shows broad opposition to the by-election itself, yet Reform voters back the move. These factors support trader consensus on Farage securing over 50% of the vote, while closely matched prices across the 40-70% buckets reflect uncertainty over turnout, protest votes, and any residual impact from financial questions in an otherwise low-contest race.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Volume
$5,914End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent developments center on Nigel Farage’s July 2026 resignation as Clacton MP to force a by-election he intends to contest, framed as a “people versus establishment” vote amid scrutiny over unregistered donations and finances. Major parties including Labour, Conservatives, and Liberal Democrats have declined to field candidates, leaving Reform UK’s incumbent facing minimal organized opposition in the Essex constituency he captured with 46.2% in 2024. Public polling shows broad opposition to the by-election itself, yet Reform voters back the move. These factors support trader consensus on Farage securing over 50% of the vote, while closely matched prices across the 40-70% buckets reflect uncertainty over turnout, protest votes, and any residual impact from financial questions in an otherwise low-contest race.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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