The 30 July 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election features a tight contest between Labour’s Bev Craig, Manchester City Council leader positioned to extend the party’s regional dominance, and Reform UK’s Sian Astley, a recently elected councillor emphasizing contract scrutiny and local priorities. Multiple candidates from other parties fragment the vote, while May 2026 council results showed Labour seat losses alongside Reform and Green gains across Manchester wards. With the campaign period still early and limited public polling available, traders reflect this uncertainty through evenly matched probabilities across victory margins. Key near-term developments that could widen gaps include turnout patterns in core Labour boroughs, Reform’s ability to consolidate right-leaning support, and any late endorsements or national party interventions before polling day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGreater Manchester Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory
Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory
Bev Craig 5–10% 48%
Bev Craig <5% 24%
Sian Astley <5% 23%
Bev Craig 10–15% 8%
NEW
NEW
Jul 30, 2026
Bev Craig 15%+
7%
Bev Craig 10–15%
8%
Bev Craig 5–10%
48%
Bev Craig <5%
24%
Sian Astley <5%
23%
Sian Astley 5%+
7%
Other
3%
Bev Craig 5–10% 48%
Bev Craig <5% 24%
Sian Astley <5% 23%
Bev Craig 10–15% 8%
NEW
NEW
Jul 30, 2026
Bev Craig 15%+
$0 Vol.
7%
Bev Craig 10–15%
$0 Vol.
8%
Bev Craig 5–10%
$0 Vol.
48%
Bev Craig <5%
$0 Vol.
24%
Sian Astley <5%
$20 Vol.
23%
Sian Astley 5%+
$0 Vol.
7%
Other
$57 Vol.
3%
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final round of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election.
The final round will be the first round if a candidate wins outright, or the runoff if no candidate wins outright.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).The 30 July 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election features a tight contest between Labour’s Bev Craig, Manchester City Council leader positioned to extend the party’s regional dominance, and Reform UK’s Sian Astley, a recently elected councillor emphasizing contract scrutiny and local priorities. Multiple candidates from other parties fragment the vote, while May 2026 council results showed Labour seat losses alongside Reform and Green gains across Manchester wards. With the campaign period still early and limited public polling available, traders reflect this uncertainty through evenly matched probabilities across victory margins. Key near-term developments that could widen gaps include turnout patterns in core Labour boroughs, Reform’s ability to consolidate right-leaning support, and any late endorsements or national party interventions before polling day.
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final round of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election.
The final round will be the first round if a candidate wins outright, or the runoff if no candidate wins outright.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final round of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election.
The final round will be the first round if a candidate wins outright, or the runoff if no candidate wins outright.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
Market Opened: Jul 3, 2026, 8:55 PM ET
Volume
$77End Date
Jul 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 3, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final round of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election.
The final round will be the first round if a candidate wins outright, or the runoff if no candidate wins outright.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).The 30 July 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election features a tight contest between Labour’s Bev Craig, Manchester City Council leader positioned to extend the party’s regional dominance, and Reform UK’s Sian Astley, a recently elected councillor emphasizing contract scrutiny and local priorities. Multiple candidates from other parties fragment the vote, while May 2026 council results showed Labour seat losses alongside Reform and Green gains across Manchester wards. With the campaign period still early and limited public polling available, traders reflect this uncertainty through evenly matched probabilities across victory margins. Key near-term developments that could widen gaps include turnout patterns in core Labour boroughs, Reform’s ability to consolidate right-leaning support, and any late endorsements or national party interventions before polling day.
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final round of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election.
The final round will be the first round if a candidate wins outright, or the runoff if no candidate wins outright.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final round of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election.
The final round will be the first round if a candidate wins outright, or the runoff if no candidate wins outright.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
Volume
$77End Date
Jul 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 3, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 30 July 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election features a tight contest between Labour’s Bev Craig, Manchester City Council leader positioned to extend the party’s regional dominance, and Reform UK’s Sian Astley, a recently elected councillor emphasizing contract scrutiny and local priorities. Multiple candidates from other parties fragment the vote, while May 2026 council results showed Labour seat losses alongside Reform and Green gains across Manchester wards. With the campaign period still early and limited public polling available, traders reflect this uncertainty through evenly matched probabilities across victory margins. Key near-term developments that could widen gaps include turnout patterns in core Labour boroughs, Reform’s ability to consolidate right-leaning support, and any late endorsements or national party interventions before polling day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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