With Morocco’s legislative elections set for September 23, trader consensus places the Istiqlal Party (PI) as the narrow favorite for third place at 48 percent implied probability. This positioning reflects PI’s 2021 result of 81 seats and its role in the outgoing governing coalition alongside the National Rally of Independents (RNI) and Authenticity and Modernity Party (PAM), both of which traders see as likelier to finish first or second. RNI at 27.5 percent for third captures downside risk if the incumbent party underperforms relative to PAM. Lower odds for the Socialist Union of Popular Forces (USFP) at 12.1 percent and the Justice and Development Party (PJD) at 8 percent align with their smaller 2021 seat totals and ongoing efforts to regain ground through promises on employment and purchasing power. The final two days of campaigning will determine whether economic messaging or turnout patterns among younger voters shift these probabilities before polls close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPI 48%
RNI 28%
PJD 6.5%
USFP 6.2%
$41,420 Vol.
$41,420 Vol.
Sep 23, 2026
PI
48%
RNI
28%
PJD
6%
USFP
6%
PAM
3%
UC
<1%
MP
<1%
PPS
<1%
PI 48%
RNI 28%
PJD 6.5%
USFP 6.2%
$41,420 Vol.
$41,420 Vol.
Sep 23, 2026
PI
$20,279 Vol.
48%
RNI
$15,841 Vol.
28%
PJD
$1,104 Vol.
6%
USFP
$1,127 Vol.
6%
PAM
$1,405 Vol.
3%
UC
$546 Vol.
<1%
MP
$580 Vol.
<1%
PPS
$537 Vol.
<1%
Legislative elections to elect the House of Representatives of Morocco are scheduled to take place on September 23, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-most number of seats in the House of Representatives of Morocco as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Moroccan government, including the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.elections.ma/).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.With Morocco’s legislative elections set for September 23, trader consensus places the Istiqlal Party (PI) as the narrow favorite for third place at 48 percent implied probability. This positioning reflects PI’s 2021 result of 81 seats and its role in the outgoing governing coalition alongside the National Rally of Independents (RNI) and Authenticity and Modernity Party (PAM), both of which traders see as likelier to finish first or second. RNI at 27.5 percent for third captures downside risk if the incumbent party underperforms relative to PAM. Lower odds for the Socialist Union of Popular Forces (USFP) at 12.1 percent and the Justice and Development Party (PJD) at 8 percent align with their smaller 2021 seat totals and ongoing efforts to regain ground through promises on employment and purchasing power. The final two days of campaigning will determine whether economic messaging or turnout patterns among younger voters shift these probabilities before polls close.
Legislative elections to elect the House of Representatives of Morocco are scheduled to take place on September 23, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-most number of seats in the House of Representatives of Morocco as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Moroccan government, including the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.elections.ma/).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-most number of seats in the House of Representatives of Morocco as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Moroccan government, including the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.elections.ma/).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 6:23 PM ET
Volume
$41,420End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections to elect the House of Representatives of Morocco are scheduled to take place on September 23, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-most number of seats in the House of Representatives of Morocco as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Moroccan government, including the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.elections.ma/).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.With Morocco’s legislative elections set for September 23, trader consensus places the Istiqlal Party (PI) as the narrow favorite for third place at 48 percent implied probability. This positioning reflects PI’s 2021 result of 81 seats and its role in the outgoing governing coalition alongside the National Rally of Independents (RNI) and Authenticity and Modernity Party (PAM), both of which traders see as likelier to finish first or second. RNI at 27.5 percent for third captures downside risk if the incumbent party underperforms relative to PAM. Lower odds for the Socialist Union of Popular Forces (USFP) at 12.1 percent and the Justice and Development Party (PJD) at 8 percent align with their smaller 2021 seat totals and ongoing efforts to regain ground through promises on employment and purchasing power. The final two days of campaigning will determine whether economic messaging or turnout patterns among younger voters shift these probabilities before polls close.
Legislative elections to elect the House of Representatives of Morocco are scheduled to take place on September 23, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-most number of seats in the House of Representatives of Morocco as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Moroccan government, including the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.elections.ma/).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-most number of seats in the House of Representatives of Morocco as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Moroccan government, including the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.elections.ma/).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volume
$41,420End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...With Morocco’s legislative elections set for September 23, trader consensus places the Istiqlal Party (PI) as the narrow favorite for third place at 48 percent implied probability. This positioning reflects PI’s 2021 result of 81 seats and its role in the outgoing governing coalition alongside the National Rally of Independents (RNI) and Authenticity and Modernity Party (PAM), both of which traders see as likelier to finish first or second. RNI at 27.5 percent for third captures downside risk if the incumbent party underperforms relative to PAM. Lower odds for the Socialist Union of Popular Forces (USFP) at 12.1 percent and the Justice and Development Party (PJD) at 8 percent align with their smaller 2021 seat totals and ongoing efforts to regain ground through promises on employment and purchasing power. The final two days of campaigning will determine whether economic messaging or turnout patterns among younger voters shift these probabilities before polls close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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