Recent diplomatic efforts around the Iran conflict, including canceled U.S. strikes and ongoing ceasefire negotiations alongside limited regional responses in the Strait of Hormuz and Gaza, have reduced near-term escalation risks without triggering listed triggers such as a U.S. invasion of Iran or regime change. No verified movements have occurred toward other resolution conditions, including leadership transitions for Trump or Xi, a Taiwan invasion, Russian action against NATO, Bitcoin price extremes, or major natural disasters. Senate proceedings and routine executive measures on enforcement priorities have advanced without producing supermajorities or institutional shifts. Trader consensus at roughly 80% for Yes reflects this baseline stability through year-end, with the market pricing continuity absent the specific high-impact events outlined in the rules.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNothing Ever Happens: 2026
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
80% chance
$724,471 Vol.
$724,471 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
80% chance
$724,471 Vol.
$724,471 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfRecent diplomatic efforts around the Iran conflict, including canceled U.S. strikes and ongoing ceasefire negotiations alongside limited regional responses in the Strait of Hormuz and Gaza, have reduced near-term escalation risks without triggering listed triggers such as a U.S. invasion of Iran or regime change. No verified movements have occurred toward other resolution conditions, including leadership transitions for Trump or Xi, a Taiwan invasion, Russian action against NATO, Bitcoin price extremes, or major natural disasters. Senate proceedings and routine executive measures on enforcement priorities have advanced without producing supermajorities or institutional shifts. Trader consensus at roughly 80% for Yes reflects this baseline stability through year-end, with the market pricing continuity absent the specific high-impact events outlined in the rules.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$724,471End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfRecent diplomatic efforts around the Iran conflict, including canceled U.S. strikes and ongoing ceasefire negotiations alongside limited regional responses in the Strait of Hormuz and Gaza, have reduced near-term escalation risks without triggering listed triggers such as a U.S. invasion of Iran or regime change. No verified movements have occurred toward other resolution conditions, including leadership transitions for Trump or Xi, a Taiwan invasion, Russian action against NATO, Bitcoin price extremes, or major natural disasters. Senate proceedings and routine executive measures on enforcement priorities have advanced without producing supermajorities or institutional shifts. Trader consensus at roughly 80% for Yes reflects this baseline stability through year-end, with the market pricing continuity absent the specific high-impact events outlined in the rules.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Volume
$724,471End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic efforts around the Iran conflict, including canceled U.S. strikes and ongoing ceasefire negotiations alongside limited regional responses in the Strait of Hormuz and Gaza, have reduced near-term escalation risks without triggering listed triggers such as a U.S. invasion of Iran or regime change. No verified movements have occurred toward other resolution conditions, including leadership transitions for Trump or Xi, a Taiwan invasion, Russian action against NATO, Bitcoin price extremes, or major natural disasters. Senate proceedings and routine executive measures on enforcement priorities have advanced without producing supermajorities or institutional shifts. Trader consensus at roughly 80% for Yes reflects this baseline stability through year-end, with the market pricing continuity absent the specific high-impact events outlined in the rules.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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