Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 71.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any triggering events through mid-May per authoritative sources: no Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US according to NOAA records, no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake via USGS seismic data (largest YTD at M7.5 near Tonga), no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption from the Global Volcanism Program's 47 monitored events, and no 10-kiloton+ meteor impact reported by NASA CNEOS. These rare phenomena—US Cat 5 landfalls averaging under once per decade, M8.5+ quakes every 5–10 years globally—bolster the odds, alongside NOAA's below-normal Atlantic hurricane forecasts amid neutral ENSO conditions. Peak risks persist through November's hurricane season, with model updates potentially shifting sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$217,815 Vol.
$217,815 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$217,815 Vol.
$217,815 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 71.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any triggering events through mid-May per authoritative sources: no Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US according to NOAA records, no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake via USGS seismic data (largest YTD at M7.5 near Tonga), no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption from the Global Volcanism Program's 47 monitored events, and no 10-kiloton+ meteor impact reported by NASA CNEOS. These rare phenomena—US Cat 5 landfalls averaging under once per decade, M8.5+ quakes every 5–10 years globally—bolster the odds, alongside NOAA's below-normal Atlantic hurricane forecasts amid neutral ENSO conditions. Peak risks persist through November's hurricane season, with model updates potentially shifting sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$217,815End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 71.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any triggering events through mid-May per authoritative sources: no Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US according to NOAA records, no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake via USGS seismic data (largest YTD at M7.5 near Tonga), no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption from the Global Volcanism Program's 47 monitored events, and no 10-kiloton+ meteor impact reported by NASA CNEOS. These rare phenomena—US Cat 5 landfalls averaging under once per decade, M8.5+ quakes every 5–10 years globally—bolster the odds, alongside NOAA's below-normal Atlantic hurricane forecasts amid neutral ENSO conditions. Peak risks persist through November's hurricane season, with model updates potentially shifting sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$217,815End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 71.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any triggering events through mid-May per authoritative sources: no Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US according to NOAA records, no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake via USGS seismic data (largest YTD at M7.5 near Tonga), no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption from the Global Volcanism Program's 47 monitored events, and no 10-kiloton+ meteor impact reported by NASA CNEOS. These rare phenomena—US Cat 5 landfalls averaging under once per decade, M8.5+ quakes every 5–10 years globally—bolster the odds, alongside NOAA's below-normal Atlantic hurricane forecasts amid neutral ENSO conditions. Peak risks persist through November's hurricane season, with model updates potentially shifting sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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