Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 71.5% probability of no natural disaster in 2026, defined strictly as a Category 5 hurricane landfall anywhere in the contiguous US per NOAA Saffir-Simpson scale, a magnitude 8.5+ earthquake per USGS, a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, or a ≥10-kiloton bolide airburst per NASA CNEOS. No such events have occurred through mid-May 2026, with USGS recording no M8+ quakes, no VEI ≥6 eruptions amid 47 total volcanic events this year, pre-season calm in the Atlantic basin, and no qualifying meteor impacts. These phenomena are historically rare—US Cat 5 landfalls average under once per decade—bolstered by Colorado State University's below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane forecast amid transitioning neutral ENSO conditions. Odds could shift with NOAA's May 21 outlook or peak-season developments through November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$217,815 Vol.
$217,815 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$217,815 Vol.
$217,815 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 71.5% probability of no natural disaster in 2026, defined strictly as a Category 5 hurricane landfall anywhere in the contiguous US per NOAA Saffir-Simpson scale, a magnitude 8.5+ earthquake per USGS, a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, or a ≥10-kiloton bolide airburst per NASA CNEOS. No such events have occurred through mid-May 2026, with USGS recording no M8+ quakes, no VEI ≥6 eruptions amid 47 total volcanic events this year, pre-season calm in the Atlantic basin, and no qualifying meteor impacts. These phenomena are historically rare—US Cat 5 landfalls average under once per decade—bolstered by Colorado State University's below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane forecast amid transitioning neutral ENSO conditions. Odds could shift with NOAA's May 21 outlook or peak-season developments through November.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$217,815End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 71.5% probability of no natural disaster in 2026, defined strictly as a Category 5 hurricane landfall anywhere in the contiguous US per NOAA Saffir-Simpson scale, a magnitude 8.5+ earthquake per USGS, a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, or a ≥10-kiloton bolide airburst per NASA CNEOS. No such events have occurred through mid-May 2026, with USGS recording no M8+ quakes, no VEI ≥6 eruptions amid 47 total volcanic events this year, pre-season calm in the Atlantic basin, and no qualifying meteor impacts. These phenomena are historically rare—US Cat 5 landfalls average under once per decade—bolstered by Colorado State University's below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane forecast amid transitioning neutral ENSO conditions. Odds could shift with NOAA's May 21 outlook or peak-season developments through November.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$217,815End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 71.5% probability of no natural disaster in 2026, defined strictly as a Category 5 hurricane landfall anywhere in the contiguous US per NOAA Saffir-Simpson scale, a magnitude 8.5+ earthquake per USGS, a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, or a ≥10-kiloton bolide airburst per NASA CNEOS. No such events have occurred through mid-May 2026, with USGS recording no M8+ quakes, no VEI ≥6 eruptions amid 47 total volcanic events this year, pre-season calm in the Atlantic basin, and no qualifying meteor impacts. These phenomena are historically rare—US Cat 5 landfalls average under once per decade—bolstered by Colorado State University's below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane forecast amid transitioning neutral ENSO conditions. Odds could shift with NOAA's May 21 outlook or peak-season developments through November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions