**No at 79.5%** reflects the low base rate of 5 kt-scale airbursts combined with the absence of any cataloged near-Earth objects on collision trajectories for the remainder of 2026. NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring systems (Sentry, Scout) show no objects large enough (~10–20 m or greater, depending on velocity and composition) with non-negligible impact probability this year; listed risks begin in 2027 or later at Palermo-scale values well below background. Small bolides detected in 2026, such as 2026 JN4 and 2026 RW1, produced energies far below the threshold. Continuous sky surveys and orbital refinements have further reduced residual uncertainty without identifying new threats. While an undetected small asteroid remains theoretically possible, the historical frequency of 5 kt events (roughly one every few decades globally) and real-time surveillance data underpin the strong market-implied probability for “No.”