No at 69.5% reflects the absence of any known near-Earth objects on collision trajectories for 2026, per NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry monitoring and ESA assessments, alongside the modest statistical baseline for undetected 5–7 meter stony impactors. These objects release roughly 5 kilotons upon atmospheric entry and recur every 3–5 years on average, producing an annual probability near 25–40% once observational completeness is factored in. Recent close approaches, such as 2026 BB4 and newly discovered small asteroids, have shown zero impact risk after orbital refinement, while early-year fireballs remain sub-kiloton events. With four-plus months remaining and no model updates or discoveries shifting the outlook, traders price the chance of an undetected airburst before year-end against ongoing planetary defense surveys.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
31% chance
$311,757 Vol.
$311,757 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
31% chance
$311,757 Vol.
$311,757 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No at 69.5% reflects the absence of any known near-Earth objects on collision trajectories for 2026, per NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry monitoring and ESA assessments, alongside the modest statistical baseline for undetected 5–7 meter stony impactors. These objects release roughly 5 kilotons upon atmospheric entry and recur every 3–5 years on average, producing an annual probability near 25–40% once observational completeness is factored in. Recent close approaches, such as 2026 BB4 and newly discovered small asteroids, have shown zero impact risk after orbital refinement, while early-year fireballs remain sub-kiloton events. With four-plus months remaining and no model updates or discoveries shifting the outlook, traders price the chance of an undetected airburst before year-end against ongoing planetary defense surveys.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$311,757End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No at 69.5% reflects the absence of any known near-Earth objects on collision trajectories for 2026, per NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry monitoring and ESA assessments, alongside the modest statistical baseline for undetected 5–7 meter stony impactors. These objects release roughly 5 kilotons upon atmospheric entry and recur every 3–5 years on average, producing an annual probability near 25–40% once observational completeness is factored in. Recent close approaches, such as 2026 BB4 and newly discovered small asteroids, have shown zero impact risk after orbital refinement, while early-year fireballs remain sub-kiloton events. With four-plus months remaining and no model updates or discoveries shifting the outlook, traders price the chance of an undetected airburst before year-end against ongoing planetary defense surveys.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$311,757End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No at 69.5% reflects the absence of any known near-Earth objects on collision trajectories for 2026, per NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry monitoring and ESA assessments, alongside the modest statistical baseline for undetected 5–7 meter stony impactors. These objects release roughly 5 kilotons upon atmospheric entry and recur every 3–5 years on average, producing an annual probability near 25–40% once observational completeness is factored in. Recent close approaches, such as 2026 BB4 and newly discovered small asteroids, have shown zero impact risk after orbital refinement, while early-year fireballs remain sub-kiloton events. With four-plus months remaining and no model updates or discoveries shifting the outlook, traders price the chance of an undetected airburst before year-end against ongoing planetary defense surveys.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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