NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system reports no tracked asteroids with impact risks for 2026, supporting the market's 69% implied probability for no 5-kiloton bolide airburst. Historical CNEOS fireball data indicate such events—equivalent to ~3-5 meter stony meteoroids—occur roughly once every 1-2 years globally, with inherent uncertainty from undetected small objects. Early 2026 saw a surge in smaller fireballs, including Ohio's March 17 event at 0.25 kt and Houston's March 22 at 0.026 kt, but none met the 5 kt threshold despite enhanced sensor detections. Recent safe close approaches, like 2026 JH2 on May 18, reinforce low risk, though untracked bolides remain a wildcard ahead of year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
$300,045 Vol.
$300,045 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$300,045 Vol.
$300,045 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system reports no tracked asteroids with impact risks for 2026, supporting the market's 69% implied probability for no 5-kiloton bolide airburst. Historical CNEOS fireball data indicate such events—equivalent to ~3-5 meter stony meteoroids—occur roughly once every 1-2 years globally, with inherent uncertainty from undetected small objects. Early 2026 saw a surge in smaller fireballs, including Ohio's March 17 event at 0.25 kt and Houston's March 22 at 0.026 kt, but none met the 5 kt threshold despite enhanced sensor detections. Recent safe close approaches, like 2026 JH2 on May 18, reinforce low risk, though untracked bolides remain a wildcard ahead of year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$300,045End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system reports no tracked asteroids with impact risks for 2026, supporting the market's 69% implied probability for no 5-kiloton bolide airburst. Historical CNEOS fireball data indicate such events—equivalent to ~3-5 meter stony meteoroids—occur roughly once every 1-2 years globally, with inherent uncertainty from undetected small objects. Early 2026 saw a surge in smaller fireballs, including Ohio's March 17 event at 0.25 kt and Houston's March 22 at 0.026 kt, but none met the 5 kt threshold despite enhanced sensor detections. Recent safe close approaches, like 2026 JH2 on May 18, reinforce low risk, though untracked bolides remain a wildcard ahead of year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$300,045End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system reports no tracked asteroids with impact risks for 2026, supporting the market's 69% implied probability for no 5-kiloton bolide airburst. Historical CNEOS fireball data indicate such events—equivalent to ~3-5 meter stony meteoroids—occur roughly once every 1-2 years globally, with inherent uncertainty from undetected small objects. Early 2026 saw a surge in smaller fireballs, including Ohio's March 17 event at 0.25 kt and Houston's March 22 at 0.026 kt, but none met the 5 kt threshold despite enhanced sensor detections. Recent safe close approaches, like 2026 JH2 on May 18, reinforce low risk, though untracked bolides remain a wildcard ahead of year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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